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Sha Tin · 2023-06-25 · 19:07

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-25 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TUCHEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with THE BEST PEACH second and SPIRITED EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TUCHEL Closed strongly 1.48.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 4 1.5 1/2
2 8 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 2 6.1 1/2
3 6 SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B M Dee · P F Yiu 1 8.7 3/4
4 7 PACKING AWARD Led early M Chadwick · L Ho 6 32.0 1-3/4
5 2 PANFIELD TT K Teetan · A T Millard 3 12.0 2-1/2
6 1 SENOR TOBA TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 10.0 5-1/2
7 3 TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 14.0 6-3/4
— 4 BELUGA L Hewitson · D J Hall — — —

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TUCHEL—2. THE BEST PEACH+0.5L3. SPIRITED EXPRESS+0.75L4. PACKING AWARD+1.75L5. PANFIELD+2.5L6. SENOR TOBA+5.5L7. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TUCHEL (61.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 TUCHEL 61.7% 1.62 1
2 8 THE BEST PEACH 9.4% 10.62 2
3 6 SPIRITED EXPRESS 8.4% 11.87 3
4 2 PANFIELD 7.8% 12.87 5
5 1 SENOR TOBA 6.4% 15.66 6
6 7 PACKING AWARD 3.3% 30.18 4
7 3 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 3.0% 33.27 7
TUCHEL — wonTHE BEST PEACHSPIRITED EXPRESSPANFIELDSENOR TOBAPACKING AWARDTOURBILLON DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 15

PLACE

5 10.1

6 17

8 17

QUINELLA

5,8 37.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 19.5

5,8 17.5

6,8 37.5

FORECAST

5,8 59

TIERCE

5,8,6 120

TRIO

5,6,8 40

FIRST 4

5,6,7,8 148

QUARTET

5,8,6,7 1,060

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 12

A3 —

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

8/4,5 171.5

8/8 34

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