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Sha Tin · 2023-06-25 · 17:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 13 32.0 1/2
2 0 JUNE PLANET Closed strongly B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 3.7 1/2
3 0 NATURAL GOLD Led early SR/XB B Avdulla · D J Whyte 5 8.0 3/4
4 0 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 4.9 1-1/4
5 0 VANTASTIC CHOICE B M Dee · C H Yip 9 6.3 2-1/4
7 0 BRAVE AND BOLD Closed strongly K C Leung · J Size 12 44.0 5
8 0 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 24.0 5-1/4
9 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 14 25.0 5-1/4
10 0 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B-/TT- K Teetan · P F Yiu 11 36.0 5-3/4
11 0 LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung 2 114.0 6-1/4
12 0 TATTENHAM XB-/H/P/TT- M L Yeung · P C Ng 7 91.0 7
13 0 MY INTELLIGENT V-/TT A Hamelin · L Ho 8 21.0 7-3/4
14 0 GOAL ORIENTED SR/H1/TT L Currie · K H Ting 4 127.0 14-3/4
— 0 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz — 4.6 5

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SO AWESOME, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with JUNE PLANET second and NATURAL GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite JUNE PLANET finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO AWESOME—2. JUNE PLANET+0.5L3. NATURAL GOLD+0.75L4. ARIEL+1.25L5. VANTASTIC CHOICE+2.25L7. BRAVE AND BOLD+5L8. SMART LEADER+5.25L9. RED BRICK FIGHTER+5.25L10. WINNING DATA+5.75L11. LEATHER MASTER+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ARIEL (31.9%) finished 4th — the winner SO AWESOME was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ARIEL 31.9% 3.13 4
2 0 PERFECT PEACH 14.4% 6.95 —
3 0 JUNE PLANET 14.1% 7.10 2
4 0 NATURAL GOLD 7.3% 13.72 3
5 0 VANTASTIC CHOICE 7.2% 13.92 5
6 0 WINNING DATA 4.7% 21.12 10
7 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 4.3% 23.26 9
8 0 SMART LEADER 4.0% 25.01 8
9 0 BRAVE AND BOLD 3.6% 27.88 7
10 0 MY INTELLIGENT 3.1% 32.63 13
11 0 SO AWESOME 3.0% 32.91 1
12 0 GOAL ORIENTED 1.0% 102.88 14
13 0 LEATHER MASTER 0.7% 135.70 11
14 0 TATTENHAM 0.7% 140.52 12
ARIELPERFECT PEACHJUNE PLANETNATURAL GOLDVANTASTIC CHOICEWINNING DATARED BRICK FIGHTERSMART LEADERBRAVE AND BOLDMY INTELLIGENTSO AWESOME — wonGOAL ORIENTEDLEATHER MASTERTATTENHAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 325

PLACE

5 15.5

6 24.5

12 81.5

QUINELLA

5,12 552

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 53

5,12 162.5

6,12 324.5

FORECAST

12,5 1,856

TIERCE

12,5,6 9,626

TRIO

5,6,12 972

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 1,161

QUARTET

12,5,6,2 48,195

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,6/5,6,12 26,122

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 42.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/5 10.5

2/12 571