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Sha Tin · 2023-06-25 · 17:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SO AWESOME, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with JUNE PLANET second and NATURAL GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite JUNE PLANET finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 13 32.0 1/2
2 5 JUNE PLANET Closed strongly B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 3.7 1/2
3 6 NATURAL GOLD Led early SR/XB B Avdulla · D J Whyte 5 8.0 3/4
4 2 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 4.9 1-1/4
5 14 VANTASTIC CHOICE B M Dee · C H Yip 9 6.3 2-1/4
6 7 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 1 4.6 5
7 8 BRAVE AND BOLD Closed strongly K C Leung · J Size 12 44.0 5
8 13 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 24.0 5-1/4
9 1 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 14 25.0 5-1/4
10 4 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B-/TT- K Teetan · P F Yiu 11 36.0 5-3/4
11 10 LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung 2 114.0 6-1/4
12 3 TATTENHAM XB-/H/P/TT- M L Yeung · P C Ng 7 91.0 7
13 11 MY INTELLIGENT V-/TT A Hamelin · L Ho 8 21.0 7-3/4
14 9 GOAL ORIENTED SR/H1/TT L Currie · K H Ting 4 127.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO AWESOME2. JUNE PLANET+0.5L3. NATURAL GOLD+0.75L4. ARIEL+1.25L5. VANTASTIC CHOICE+2.25L6. PERFECT PEACH+5L7. BRAVE AND BOLD+5L8. SMART LEADER+5.25L9. RED BRICK FIGHTER+5.25L10. WINNING DATA+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ARIEL (31.9%) finished 4th — the winner SO AWESOME was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ARIEL 31.9% 3.13 4
2 7 PERFECT PEACH 14.4% 6.95 6
3 5 JUNE PLANET 14.1% 7.10 2
4 6 NATURAL GOLD 7.3% 13.72 3
5 14 VANTASTIC CHOICE 7.2% 13.92 5
6 4 WINNING DATA 4.7% 21.12 10
7 1 RED BRICK FIGHTER 4.3% 23.26 9
8 13 SMART LEADER 4.0% 25.01 8
9 8 BRAVE AND BOLD 3.6% 27.88 7
10 11 MY INTELLIGENT 3.1% 32.63 13
11 12 SO AWESOME 3.0% 32.91 1
12 9 GOAL ORIENTED 1.0% 102.88 14
13 10 LEATHER MASTER 0.7% 135.70 11
14 3 TATTENHAM 0.7% 140.52 12
ARIELPERFECT PEACHJUNE PLANETNATURAL GOLDVANTASTIC CHOICEWINNING DATARED BRICK FIGHTERSMART LEADERBRAVE AND BOLDMY INTELLIGENTSO AWESOME — wonGOAL ORIENTEDLEATHER MASTERTATTENHAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 325

PLACE

5 15.5

6 24.5

12 81.5

QUINELLA

5,12 552

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 53

5,12 162.5

6,12 324.5

FORECAST

12,5 1,856

TIERCE

12,5,6 9,626

TRIO

5,6,12 972

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 1,161

QUARTET

12,5,6,2 48,195

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,6/5,6,12 26,122

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 42.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/5 10.5

2/12 571