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Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 09:49

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB BOY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with MASSIVE ACTION second and HYPER DRAGON BALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT 1.21.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui 2 2.1 SH
2 10 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V Y L Chung · F C Lor 10 7.6 SH
3 3 HYPER DRAGON BALL Closed strongly TT Z Purton · T P Yung 12 17.0 1/2
4 9 CAPTAIN WIN Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 4 11.0 3/4
5 6 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 32.0 2
6 12 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes 3 14.0 2
7 11 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 5 36.0 3-1/4
8 5 E LEGEND B Avdulla · K L Man 1 6.0 3-1/2
9 7 LIGHTNING BOLT TT K Teetan · C S Shum 8 25.0 3-1/2
10 4 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 9 34.0 4
11 8 SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 13.0 5
12 1 SUNNY STAR B E C W Wong · C Fownes 6 25.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB BOY2. MASSIVE ACTION+0.1L3. HYPER DRAGON BALL+0.5L4. CAPTAIN WIN+0.75L5. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+2L6. ROYAL PRIDE+2L7. TOTAL POWER+3.25L8. E LEGEND+3.5L9. LIGHTNING BOLT+3.5L10. BEAUTY FIT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPERB BOY (26.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUPERB BOY 26.1% 3.83 1
2 12 ROYAL PRIDE 10.1% 9.91 6
3 10 MASSIVE ACTION 9.5% 10.51 2
4 1 SUNNY STAR 7.7% 12.93 12
5 5 E LEGEND 7.6% 13.19 8
6 8 SETANTA 7.5% 13.31 11
7 3 HYPER DRAGON BALL 7.0% 14.35 3
8 11 TOTAL POWER 6.6% 15.11 7
9 7 LIGHTNING BOLT 5.9% 17.05 9
10 4 BEAUTY FIT 5.5% 18.15 10
11 9 CAPTAIN WIN 4.5% 22.06 4
12 6 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 2.0% 50.84 5
SUPERB BOY — wonROYAL PRIDEMASSIVE ACTIONSUNNY STARE LEGENDSETANTAHYPER DRAGON BALLTOTAL POWERLIGHTNING BOLTBEAUTY FITCAPTAIN WINYOU'REMYEVERYTHING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 21.5

PLACE

2 11.5

3 48

10 26.5

QUINELLA

2,10 94

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 82

2,10 41.5

3,10 218.5

FORECAST

2,10 177

TIERCE

2,10,3 1,638

TRIO

2,3,10 479

FIRST 4

2,3,9,10 1,032

QUARTET

2,10,3,9 13,533

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

13/5/2 576

13/5/10 172

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,10/2,3,10 34,945

9TH DOUBLE

5/2 139.5

5/10 51.5

SIX UP

8,10/7,11/2,3/8,13/4,5/2,10 4,265

10/11/3/13/5/2 474,559

2 [K W Lui]

2 [H Bowman]