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Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT 1.35.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · W Y So 9 10.0 1/2
2 0 LUCKY ETERNITY Closed strongly CP H Bowman · T P Yung 1 2.8 1/2
3 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 12 15.0 3/4
4 0 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu 3 19.0 3/4
5 0 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 6.4 1-3/4
6 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 10.0 2
7 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 2 24.0 2
8 0 SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB/TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 6.6 2-1/2
9 0 LOOKING COOL CP K Teetan · F C Lor 4 9.8 4-1/4
10 0 CYBER PATCH PC/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 5 60.0 4-1/2
11 0 SERANGOON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 20.0 5
12 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB H Bentley · P C Ng 11 26.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. PAKISTAN FRIEND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with LUCKY ETERNITY second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite LUCKY ETERNITY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PAKISTAN FRIEND—2. LUCKY ETERNITY+0.5L3. FOREVER GLORIOUS+0.75L4. REACH GOAL+0.75L5. ENTRUSTED+1.75L6. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+2L7. GO GO SIXTEEN+2L8. SMILING COLLECTOR+2.5L9. LOOKING COOL+4.25L10. CYBER PATCH+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY ETERNITY (24.5%) finished 2nd — the winner PAKISTAN FRIEND was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY ETERNITY 24.5% 4.08 2
2 0 ENTRUSTED 14.1% 7.11 5
3 0 SMILING COLLECTOR 13.0% 7.68 8
4 0 LOOKING COOL 12.4% 8.06 9
5 0 REACH GOAL 7.5% 13.26 4
6 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS 6.8% 14.72 3
7 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 6.7% 14.83 6
8 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.1% 19.52 1
9 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 4.5% 22.17 12
10 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.7% 37.61 7
11 0 SERANGOON 2.0% 50.13 11
12 0 CYBER PATCH 0.6% 156.27 10
LUCKY ETERNITYENTRUSTEDSMILING COLLECTORLOOKING COOLREACH GOALFOREVER GLORIOUSPRESIDENT'S CHOICEPAKISTAN FRIEND — wonTURQUOISE ALPHAGO GO SIXTEENSERANGOONCYBER PATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 103.5

PLACE

7 15

10 35.5

11 29.5

QUINELLA

7,11 142.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 83.5

7,11 58

10,11 188.5

FORECAST

11,7 397

TIERCE

11,7,10 3,998

TRIO

7,10,11 633

FIRST 4

7,8,10,11 2,196

QUARTET

11,7,10,8 47,767

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,10/7,10,11 260,869

5TH DOUBLE

10/7 225

10/11 3,368.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,7/2,8,10/Any Combination 317,624