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Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 07:37

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. PAKISTAN FRIEND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with LUCKY ETERNITY second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite LUCKY ETERNITY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT 1.35.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · W Y So 9 10.0 1/2
2 7 LUCKY ETERNITY Closed strongly CP H Bowman · T P Yung 1 2.8 1/2
3 10 FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 12 15.0 3/4
4 8 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu 3 19.0 3/4
5 2 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 6.4 1-3/4
6 12 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 10.0 2
7 6 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 2 24.0 2
8 3 SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB/TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 6.6 2-1/2
9 5 LOOKING COOL CP K Teetan · F C Lor 4 9.8 4-1/4
10 9 CYBER PATCH PC/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 5 60.0 4-1/2
11 1 SERANGOON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 20.0 5
12 4 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB H Bentley · P C Ng 11 26.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PAKISTAN FRIEND2. LUCKY ETERNITY+0.5L3. FOREVER GLORIOUS+0.75L4. REACH GOAL+0.75L5. ENTRUSTED+1.75L6. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+2L7. GO GO SIXTEEN+2L8. SMILING COLLECTOR+2.5L9. LOOKING COOL+4.25L10. CYBER PATCH+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY ETERNITY (24.5%) finished 2nd — the winner PAKISTAN FRIEND was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LUCKY ETERNITY 24.5% 4.08 2
2 2 ENTRUSTED 14.1% 7.11 5
3 3 SMILING COLLECTOR 13.0% 7.68 8
4 5 LOOKING COOL 12.4% 8.06 9
5 8 REACH GOAL 7.5% 13.26 4
6 10 FOREVER GLORIOUS 6.8% 14.72 3
7 12 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 6.7% 14.83 6
8 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.1% 19.52 1
9 4 TURQUOISE ALPHA 4.5% 22.17 12
10 6 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.7% 37.61 7
11 1 SERANGOON 2.0% 50.13 11
12 9 CYBER PATCH 0.6% 156.27 10
LUCKY ETERNITYENTRUSTEDSMILING COLLECTORLOOKING COOLREACH GOALFOREVER GLORIOUSPRESIDENT'S CHOICEPAKISTAN FRIEND — wonTURQUOISE ALPHAGO GO SIXTEENSERANGOONCYBER PATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 103.5

PLACE

7 15

10 35.5

11 29.5

QUINELLA

7,11 142.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 83.5

7,11 58

10,11 188.5

FORECAST

11,7 397

TIERCE

11,7,10 3,998

TRIO

7,10,11 633

FIRST 4

7,8,10,11 2,196

QUARTET

11,7,10,8 47,767

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,10/7,10,11 260,869

5TH DOUBLE

10/7 225

10/11 3,368.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,7/2,8,10/Any Combination 317,624