Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 18:23
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHIU CHOW BROTHER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with SUNNY BABY second and FIRE BALL third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER Wire to wire B 1.21.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 11 | 8.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly B2 Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | FIRE BALL M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 5 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | DOUBLE SHOW B-/P1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 19.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 4 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 10 | 111.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | SMART LEADER B/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 7.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | TURBO POWER A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 9 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 14 | 28.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 13 | BEAUTY NOVA H2/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 13 | 14.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | DIAMOND WINNER B-/P1 L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 8 | 104.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 19.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUNNY BABY | 31.6% | 3.17 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 14.1% | 7.09 | 8 |
| 3 | 14 | MEDIC ELITE | 7.9% | 12.63 | 6 |
| 4 | 13 | BEAUTY NOVA | 7.0% | 14.30 | 12 |
| 5 | 11 | DOUBLE SHOW | 6.9% | 14.41 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 6.3% | 15.99 | 10 |
| 7 | 6 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR | 5.0% | 19.99 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER | 4.9% | 20.33 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | TURBO POWER | 4.1% | 24.56 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER | 3.9% | 25.60 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT | 3.3% | 30.63 | 14 |
| 12 | 7 | FIRE BALL | 2.5% | 40.67 | 3 |
| 13 | 1 | DIAMOND WINNER | 1.4% | 70.60 | 13 |
| 14 | 12 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 1.2% | 82.83 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 80.5
PLACE
3 16
5 35
7 57
QUINELLA
3,5 199
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 70.5
3,7 156
5,7 247.5
FORECAST
5,3 367
TIERCE
5,3,7 5,879
TRIO
3,5,7 1,160
FIRST 4
3,5,6,7 3,781
QUARTET
5,3,7,6 72,553
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/3,5,7 87,426
3RD DOUBLE
1/3 281.5
1/5 2,985.5