Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 08:07
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ENCOUNTER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER FORTUNE second and JOYFUL HUNTER third. The 2.8 favourite JOYFUL HUNTER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY ENCOUNTER 1.08.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 3 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | JOYFUL HUNTER XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 2.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | DRAGON'S LUCK L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 1 | 7.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | GREENWICH TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 8 | 4.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | LET'S DO IT CP K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 7 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | FUN N GLORY E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | CHATEAU B- A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 9 | 58.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY ENCOUNTER | 24.2% | 4.14 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | GREENWICH | 23.5% | 4.26 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | JOYFUL HUNTER | 20.2% | 4.95 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | LET'S DO IT | 11.5% | 8.73 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | DRAGON'S LUCK | 6.7% | 15.00 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | FUN N GLORY | 6.1% | 16.42 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 | CALIFORNIA VANES | 3.8% | 26.22 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE | 3.5% | 28.35 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | CHATEAU | 0.6% | 158.88 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 36
PLACE
2 43
3 13.5
4 13
QUINELLA
2,3 377
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 111.5
2,4 110.5
3,4 26.5
FORECAST
3,2 479
TIERCE
3,2,4 1,673
TRIO
2,3,4 298
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 195
QUARTET
3,2,4,1 5,093
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/2 231.5
11/3 327