Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 08:07

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ENCOUNTER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER FORTUNE second and JOYFUL HUNTER third. The 2.8 favourite JOYFUL HUNTER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 1.08.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 3.6 1-1/4
2 2 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 22.0 1-1/4
3 4 JOYFUL HUNTER XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 2.8 1-1/2
4 1 DRAGON'S LUCK L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 7.3 2
5 9 GREENWICH TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 4.3 2-1/4
6 6 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 20.0 2-3/4
7 5 LET'S DO IT CP K De Melo · D J Hall 7 16.0 2-3/4
8 8 FUN N GLORY E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 25.0 5
9 7 CHATEAU B- A Hamelin · J Size 9 58.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ENCOUNTER2. SUPER FORTUNE+1.25L3. JOYFUL HUNTER+1.5L4. DRAGON'S LUCK+2L5. GREENWICH+2.25L6. CALIFORNIA VANES+2.75L7. LET'S DO IT+2.75L8. FUN N GLORY+5L9. CHATEAU+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY ENCOUNTER (24.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 24.2% 4.14 1
2 9 GREENWICH 23.5% 4.26 5
3 4 JOYFUL HUNTER 20.2% 4.95 3
4 5 LET'S DO IT 11.5% 8.73 7
5 1 DRAGON'S LUCK 6.7% 15.00 4
6 8 FUN N GLORY 6.1% 16.42 8
7 6 CALIFORNIA VANES 3.8% 26.22 6
8 2 SUPER FORTUNE 3.5% 28.35 2
9 7 CHATEAU 0.6% 158.88 9
LUCKY ENCOUNTER — wonGREENWICHJOYFUL HUNTERLET'S DO ITDRAGON'S LUCKFUN N GLORYCALIFORNIA VANESSUPER FORTUNECHATEAU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 36

PLACE

2 43

3 13.5

4 13

QUINELLA

2,3 377

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 111.5

2,4 110.5

3,4 26.5

FORECAST

3,2 479

TIERCE

3,2,4 1,673

TRIO

2,3,4 298

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 195

QUARTET

3,2,4,1 5,093

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

11/2 231.5

11/3 327