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Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 07:04

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KILLER INSTINCT, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with RED DESERT second and FLYING DRAGON third. The 3.7 favourite MAN STAR finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KILLER INSTINCT V/TT 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes 12 38.0 N
2 8 RED DESERT B Avdulla · J Size 8 8.8 N
3 2 FLYING DRAGON B/XB H Bowman · C H Yip 3 6.2 N
4 4 MULTISUPER CP1 K De Melo · P F Yiu 7 12.0 3/4
5 7 COOL BLUE TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 11.0 2-1/2
6 11 HERO ICON TT A Badel · K L Man 2 6.8 2-1/2
7 3 TRADER B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 10 14.0 4
8 5 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 9.2 4-1/4
9 6 MORE RICE V K Teetan · T P Yung 6 15.0 4-1/4
10 1 MAN STAR V Z Purton · K H Ting 5 3.7 6
11 12 CALL ME TEDDY B-/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 15.0 7-1/2
12 9 ASIAN ONE V-/XB/PC2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 9 44.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KILLER INSTINCT2. RED DESERT+0.05L3. FLYING DRAGON+0.05L4. MULTISUPER+0.75L5. COOL BLUE+2.5L6. HERO ICON+2.5L7. TRADER+4L8. COLOURFUL PRINCE+4.25L9. MORE RICE+4.25L10. MAN STAR+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MAN STAR (15.1%) finished 10th — the winner KILLER INSTINCT was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MAN STAR 15.1% 6.61 10
2 5 COLOURFUL PRINCE 13.2% 7.60 8
3 11 HERO ICON 13.1% 7.63 6
4 4 MULTISUPER 11.5% 8.73 4
5 2 FLYING DRAGON 8.6% 11.65 3
6 6 MORE RICE 8.4% 11.84 9
7 7 COOL BLUE 8.2% 12.26 5
8 10 KILLER INSTINCT 6.5% 15.28 1
9 9 ASIAN ONE 6.0% 16.63 12
10 12 CALL ME TEDDY 4.1% 24.58 11
11 3 TRADER 2.7% 36.54 7
12 8 RED DESERT 2.6% 38.30 2
MAN STARCOLOURFUL PRINCEHERO ICONMULTISUPERFLYING DRAGONMORE RICECOOL BLUEKILLER INSTINCT — wonASIAN ONECALL ME TEDDYTRADERRED DESERT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 387

PLACE

2 28

8 26.5

10 76

QUINELLA

8,10 1,128

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 111.5

2,10 284

8,10 285

FORECAST

10,8 2,564

TIERCE

10,8,2 15,984

TRIO

2,8,10 2,273

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 6,754

QUARTET

10,8,2,4 245,751

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/5/8 6,921

1/5/10 92,348

4TH DOUBLE

5/8 188.5

5/10 5,035