Sha Tin · 2023-09-17 · 07:04
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KILLER INSTINCT, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with RED DESERT second and FLYING DRAGON third. The 3.7 favourite MAN STAR finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | KILLER INSTINCT V/TT 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 12 | 38.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | RED DESERT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 8 | 8.8 | N |
| 3 | 2 | FLYING DRAGON B/XB H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 3 | 6.2 | N |
| 4 | 4 | MULTISUPER CP1 K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 7 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | COOL BLUE TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | HERO ICON TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 2 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | TRADER B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 10 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 9.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | MORE RICE V K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 6 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | MAN STAR V Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 5 | 3.7 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | CALL ME TEDDY B-/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 11 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | ASIAN ONE V-/XB/PC2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 9 | 44.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MAN STAR | 15.1% | 6.61 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 13.2% | 7.60 | 8 |
| 3 | 11 | HERO ICON | 13.1% | 7.63 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | MULTISUPER | 11.5% | 8.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | FLYING DRAGON | 8.6% | 11.65 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | MORE RICE | 8.4% | 11.84 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | COOL BLUE | 8.2% | 12.26 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | KILLER INSTINCT | 6.5% | 15.28 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | ASIAN ONE | 6.0% | 16.63 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | CALL ME TEDDY | 4.1% | 24.58 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | TRADER | 2.7% | 36.54 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | RED DESERT | 2.6% | 38.30 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 387
PLACE
2 28
8 26.5
10 76
QUINELLA
8,10 1,128
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 111.5
2,10 284
8,10 285
FORECAST
10,8 2,564
TIERCE
10,8,2 15,984
TRIO
2,8,10 2,273
FIRST 4
2,4,8,10 6,754
QUARTET
10,8,2,4 245,751
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/5/8 6,921
1/5/10 92,348
4TH DOUBLE
5/8 188.5
5/10 5,035