Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 8 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. KYRUS UNICORN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/2, with JOYFUL CHAMPION second and FIERY FLYING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite SPLENDID STAR finished 7th.

Result

Official · 2.02.37

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B 2.02.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	5	135 lb	7.8	1-1/2
2	7	JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C W Chang	A Atzeni	C W Chang	1	122 lb	7.0	1-1/2
3	4	FIERY FLYING Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	2	132 lb	4.5	2
4	6	STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	4	125 lb	10.0	3-1/2
5	2	GOLD STERLING Closed strongly P-/TT A Badel · C H Yip	A Badel	C H Yip	3	133 lb	36.0	4-1/2
6	8	RING BELLS B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	6	117 lb	30.0	5-3/4
7	3	SPLENDID STAR Z Purton · D J Whyte	Z Purton	D J Whyte	8	133 lb	2.0	6-3/4
8	5	LOYAL AMBITION Led early TT E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	7	122 lb	14.0	8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick SPLENDID STAR (44.0%) finished 7th — the winner KYRUS UNICORN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	SPLENDID STAR	44.0%	2.27	7	2.0
2	4	FIERY FLYING	19.6%	5.10	3	4.5
3	6	STARSHIP EIGHTY	12.5%	8.00	4	10.0
4	5	LOYAL AMBITION	10.3%	9.74	8	14.0
5	1	KYRUS UNICORN	7.6%	13.20	1	7.8
6	7	JOYFUL CHAMPION	3.4%	29.43	2	7.0
7	8	RING BELLS	1.6%	61.81	6	30.0
8	2	GOLD STERLING	1.0%	95.58	5	36.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 78

PLACE

1 21.5

4 15

7 20.5

QUINELLA

1,7 253.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 46

1,7 73.5

4,7 43.5

FORECAST

1,7 559

TIERCE

1,7,4 1,772

TRIO

1,4,7 262

FIRST 4

1,4,6,7 362

QUARTET

1,7,4,6 9,752

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99