Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 07:40
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ENSUED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with SNAFFLES second and SWAN BAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite MASTER OF FORTUNE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ENSUED Closed strongly 1.48.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 7.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | SNAFFLES Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | SWAN BAY Closed strongly B L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 4 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 1 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 6 | 4.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 8.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | YOUNG BRILLIANT B- A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 13 | 22.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SECRET VISION CP/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 10 | 21.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 12 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | POWERFUL WINGS B A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 9 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 2 | PACKING HURRICANE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPER FOOTBALL B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 5 | 59.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | HARRY'S HERO XB L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 14 | 89.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MASTER OF FORTUNE | 15.1% | 6.64 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | MAJESTIC VICTORY | 14.1% | 7.11 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE | 12.4% | 8.05 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | ENSUED | 12.0% | 8.31 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | SNAFFLES | 11.9% | 8.44 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | PACKING HURRICANE | 6.4% | 15.53 | 12 |
| 7 | 5 | S J TOURBILLON | 5.3% | 18.92 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | SECRET VISION | 5.0% | 19.84 | 9 |
| 9 | 14 | TOTAL POWER | 4.3% | 23.11 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | POWERFUL WINGS | 4.3% | 23.26 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | YOUNG BRILLIANT | 4.0% | 25.04 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | SWAN BAY | 3.2% | 31.19 | 3 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 1.5% | 67.94 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | HARRY'S HERO | 0.5% | 195.72 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 78
PLACE
6 19
9 40.5
11 26.5
QUINELLA
6,11 275.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 115
6,11 100
9,11 227.5
FORECAST
11,6 525
TIERCE
11,6,9 5,362
TRIO
6,9,11 1,173
FIRST 4
1,6,9,11 1,443
QUARTET
11,6,9,1 30,979
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,9,13/6,9,11 20,615
5TH DOUBLE
8/6 32.5
8/11 648.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,5/4,8,9,13/6,9,11 2,098,978
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,5/4,8,9,13/Any Combination 1,282