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Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ENSUED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with SNAFFLES second and SWAN BAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite MASTER OF FORTUNE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.48.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ENSUED Closed strongly 1.48.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 7.8 1/2
2 6 SNAFFLES Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 4.4 1/2
3 9 SWAN BAY Closed strongly B L Ferraris · W Y So 4 13.0 1
4 1 CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 1 7.8 1-1/4
5 12 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 6 4.1 1-1/2
6 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 8.7 1-3/4
7 10 YOUNG BRILLIANT B- A Atzeni · C H Yip 13 22.0 2-3/4
8 14 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 7 33.0 3-3/4
9 4 SECRET VISION CP/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 10 21.0 4-1/4
10 5 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 26.0 4-1/2
11 3 POWERFUL WINGS B A Badel · P F Yiu 9 22.0 5
12 2 PACKING HURRICANE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 14.0 5
13 8 SUPER FOOTBALL B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 5 59.0 11-1/4
14 13 HARRY'S HERO XB L Hewitson · P F Yiu 14 89.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENSUED2. SNAFFLES+0.5L3. SWAN BAY+1L4. CALIFORNIA VOCE+1.25L5. MASTER OF FORTUNE+1.5L6. MAJESTIC VICTORY+1.75L7. YOUNG BRILLIANT+2.75L8. TOTAL POWER+3.75L9. SECRET VISION+4.25L10. S J TOURBILLON+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MASTER OF FORTUNE (15.1%) finished 5th — the winner ENSUED was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 MASTER OF FORTUNE 15.1% 6.64 5
2 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY 14.1% 7.11 6
3 1 CALIFORNIA VOCE 12.4% 8.05 4
4 11 ENSUED 12.0% 8.31 1
5 6 SNAFFLES 11.9% 8.44 2
6 2 PACKING HURRICANE 6.4% 15.53 12
7 5 S J TOURBILLON 5.3% 18.92 10
8 4 SECRET VISION 5.0% 19.84 9
9 14 TOTAL POWER 4.3% 23.11 8
10 3 POWERFUL WINGS 4.3% 23.26 11
11 10 YOUNG BRILLIANT 4.0% 25.04 7
12 9 SWAN BAY 3.2% 31.19 3
13 8 SUPER FOOTBALL 1.5% 67.94 13
14 13 HARRY'S HERO 0.5% 195.72 14
MASTER OF FORTUNEMAJESTIC VICTORYCALIFORNIA VOCEENSUED — wonSNAFFLESPACKING HURRICANES J TOURBILLONSECRET VISIONTOTAL POWERPOWERFUL WINGSYOUNG BRILLIANTSWAN BAYSUPER FOOTBALLHARRY'S HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 78

PLACE

6 19

9 40.5

11 26.5

QUINELLA

6,11 275.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 115

6,11 100

9,11 227.5

FORECAST

11,6 525

TIERCE

11,6,9 5,362

TRIO

6,9,11 1,173

FIRST 4

1,6,9,11 1,443

QUARTET

11,6,9,1 30,979

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,9,13/6,9,11 20,615

5TH DOUBLE

8/6 32.5

8/11 648.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,4,5/4,8,9,13/6,9,11 2,098,978

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,5/4,8,9,13/Any Combination 1,282