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Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ENCOUNTER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY CRESCENT second and GREENWICH third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 1.08.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 2.1 3/4
2 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 7 15.0 3/4
3 14 GREENWICH TT A Badel · P C Ng 14 8.3 1
4 8 GOOD BUDDY CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 13 14.0 1-1/4
5 10 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 11.0 1-1/2
6 9 COTTON FINGERS TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 7.7 2-3/4
7 12 VICTORY SCHOLARS V K H Chan · C Fownes 2 29.0 3-1/4
8 4 SINBA CP/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 10 56.0 4-1/4
9 11 FOOLISH HEART K C Leung · C W Chang 1 30.0 4-3/4
10 3 RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor 5 103.0 6
11 7 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 15.0 6-1/4
12 13 AMAZING DUCK H1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 21.0 7-1/2
13 5 SEIZING THE MOMENT B L Currie · J Size 8 50.0 8-1/2
14 6 ACE ONE XB-/B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 23.0 21
0 HAPPY DAILY A Hamelin · C H Yip
0 ENTERPRISE ATTACK C Y Ho · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ENCOUNTER2. BEAUTY CRESCENT+0.75L3. GREENWICH+1L4. GOOD BUDDY+1.25L5. CALIFORNIA VANES+1.5L6. COTTON FINGERS+2.75L7. VICTORY SCHOLARS+3.25L8. SINBA+4.25L9. FOOLISH HEART+4.75L10. RUN RUN COOL+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY ENCOUNTER (28.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 28.1% 3.56 1
2 14 GREENWICH 15.7% 6.36 3
3 9 COTTON FINGERS 10.3% 9.74 6
4 7 SUPER HIGHWAY 9.9% 10.06 11
5 10 CALIFORNIA VANES 7.7% 13.06 5
6 6 ACE ONE 4.7% 21.14 14
7 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT 4.6% 21.79 2
8 8 GOOD BUDDY 4.1% 24.62 4
9 12 VICTORY SCHOLARS 3.9% 25.76 7
10 3 RUN RUN COOL 2.9% 33.96 10
11 4 SINBA 2.3% 43.17 8
12 13 AMAZING DUCK 2.3% 43.87 12
13 11 FOOLISH HEART 1.8% 54.19 9
14 5 SEIZING THE MOMENT 1.7% 58.89 13
LUCKY ENCOUNTER — wonGREENWICHCOTTON FINGERSSUPER HIGHWAYCALIFORNIA VANESACE ONEBEAUTY CRESCENTGOOD BUDDYVICTORY SCHOLARSRUN RUN COOLSINBAAMAZING DUCKFOOLISH HEARTSEIZING THE MOMENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 21.5

PLACE

1 41.5

2 11.5

14 26

QUINELLA

1,2 180

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 67.5

1,14 183.5

2,14 42.5

FORECAST

2,1 294

TIERCE

2,1,14 1,765

TRIO

1,2,14 440

FIRST 4

1,2,8,14 836

QUARTET

2,1,14,8 11,309

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/1,2,14 7,633

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 89.5

1/2 149.5