Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 06:35
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LESLIE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with ALWAYS FLUKE second and PINS PRINCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite TOP TOP TEA finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LESLIE Closed strongly B 1.22.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 5 | 21.0 | N |
| 2 | 5 | ALWAYS FLUKE Closed strongly CP/H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 6.2 | N |
| 3 | 4 | PINS PRINCE Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | RIVER VIEWS Led early K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 12 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | TOP TOP TEA B1 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 8 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | GO GO GO Closed strongly H-/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 2 | 38.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 1 | 9.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | LUCKY BANNER Closed strongly H/TT L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 7 | 59.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | G LINER Closed strongly SR-/XB1/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 9 | 145.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | KING OF THE COURT B K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 13 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING GLORY Closed strongly SR/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 3 | 283.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | HERO ICON TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL CP1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 14 | 69.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 18.0% | 5.55 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | TOP TOP TEA | 16.0% | 6.23 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | PINS PRINCE | 13.5% | 7.40 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | RIVER VIEWS | 12.3% | 8.13 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | WIDE BLUE YONDER | 9.9% | 10.09 | 12 |
| 6 | 13 | HERO ICON | 6.3% | 15.79 | 13 |
| 7 | 10 | KING OF THE COURT | 6.1% | 16.39 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | LESLIE | 5.5% | 18.08 | 1 |
| 9 | 14 | GO GO GO | 3.7% | 27.21 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | CHILLI BABA | 3.1% | 32.53 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | LUCKY BANNER | 2.1% | 46.61 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 1.8% | 56.43 | 14 |
| 13 | 7 | G LINER | 1.0% | 103.12 | 9 |
| 14 | 12 | DASHING GLORY | 0.6% | 164.83 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 211
PLACE
2 50
4 24
5 21.5
QUINELLA
2,5 606.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 196.5
2,5 170.5
4,5 60.5
FORECAST
2,5 1,486
TIERCE
2,5,4 6,415
TRIO
2,4,5 797
FIRST 4
2,4,5,9 753
QUARTET
2,5,4,9 24,438
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,8/2,4,5 7,574
3RD DOUBLE
8/2 1,622.5
8/5 107.5