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Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. I GIVE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with KA YING WARRIOR second and KAHOLO ANGEL third. The 1.9 favourite KA YING WARRIOR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 I GIVE 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 12 7.2 1
2 5 KA YING WARRIOR XB Z Purton · C H Yip 3 1.9 1
3 2 KAHOLO ANGEL TT H Bowman · C Fownes 4 8.4 1-1/4
4 7 PRINCE CHISWICK XB1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 13 10.0 3
5 13 RATTAN WORLD B/TT K De Melo · J Richards 10 92.0 5
6 1 WONDERFUL UNICORN TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 12.0 5-3/4
7 6 COMMANDING MISSILE B/H C L Chau · C W Chang 9 13.0 6
8 11 BIG TWO SR-/XB/CP1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 71.0 6
9 9 DRAGON DELIGHT B L Currie · D A Hayes 14 28.0 7
10 3 ALL ARE MINE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 71.0 7
11 4 BLISSFUL STAR V/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 32.0 11-3/4
12 12 MARVEL DRAGON TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 5 54.0 12-1/4
13 10 DASHING SUCCESS TT- H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 234.0 26-1/2
14 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT H Bentley · W Y So 11 14.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. I GIVE2. KA YING WARRIOR+1L3. KAHOLO ANGEL+1.25L4. PRINCE CHISWICK+3L5. RATTAN WORLD+5L6. WONDERFUL UNICORN+5.75L7. COMMANDING MISSILE+6L8. BIG TWO+6L9. DRAGON DELIGHT+7L10. ALL ARE MINE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING WARRIOR (20.8%) finished 2nd — the winner I GIVE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 KA YING WARRIOR 20.8% 4.80 2
2 2 KAHOLO ANGEL 19.2% 5.20 3
3 8 I GIVE 11.6% 8.60 1
4 6 COMMANDING MISSILE 10.8% 9.28 7
5 11 BIG TWO 7.2% 13.87 8
6 7 PRINCE CHISWICK 6.9% 14.48 4
7 4 BLISSFUL STAR 5.5% 18.35 11
8 9 DRAGON DELIGHT 4.8% 20.89 9
9 12 MARVEL DRAGON 3.5% 28.20 12
10 3 ALL ARE MINE 3.1% 32.31 10
11 13 RATTAN WORLD 2.9% 34.55 5
12 1 WONDERFUL UNICORN 2.8% 35.15 6
13 10 DASHING SUCCESS 0.8% 123.30 13
KA YING WARRIORKAHOLO ANGELI GIVE — wonCOMMANDING MISSILEBIG TWOPRINCE CHISWICKBLISSFUL STARDRAGON DELIGHTMARVEL DRAGONALL ARE MINERATTAN WORLDWONDERFUL UNICORNDASHING SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 72.5

PLACE

2 23.5

5 11.5

8 22.5

QUINELLA

5,8 73

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 34.5

2,8 103

5,8 34

FORECAST

8,5 249

TIERCE

8,5,2 1,330

TRIO

2,5,8 183

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 394

QUARTET

8,5,2,7 10,963

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/5 33

4/8 1,004.5