Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 08:10
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with ENCOUNTERED second and BEAUTY ETERNAL third. The winner led throughout. The 1.8 favourite BEAUTY ETERNAL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Wire to wire TT 1.34.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | ENCOUNTERED Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | BEAUTY ETERNAL Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 1.8 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 8.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | MONEY CATCHER A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 6 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | SENOR TOBA Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 2 | 58.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 9 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/XB1/TT- A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 1 | 57.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 8 | 52.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY ETERNAL | 51.1% | 1.96 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 15.6% | 6.42 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 6.8% | 14.74 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 5.8% | 17.21 | 8 |
| 5 | 4 | MONEY CATCHER | 5.6% | 17.76 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | ENCOUNTERED | 4.4% | 22.74 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY | 4.2% | 23.86 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 3.3% | 30.60 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | SENOR TOBA | 2.0% | 51.25 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 1.3% | 76.92 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 44
PLACE
1 16
3 10.5
9 40.5
QUINELLA
1,9 356
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 21
1,9 91
3,9 53.5
FORECAST
1,9 554
TIERCE
1,9,3 1,553
TRIO
1,3,9 176
FIRST 4
1,3,8,9 190
QUARTET
1,9,3,8 9,152
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/1 472
11/9 182.5