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Sha Tin · 2023-10-15 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-15 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUMMIT CHEERS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with MULTISUPER second and SUPER COMMANDER third. The 3.9 favourite MULTISUPER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SUMMIT CHEERS TT 0.57.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 7 7.5 1
2 3 MULTISUPER CP K De Melo · P F Yiu 13 3.9 1
3 1 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 8 18.0 1-1/4
4 13 SUPER FAST DRAGON XB/CP2/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 3 17.0 2
5 9 LUCKY QUALITY E C W Wong · C Fownes 12 14.0 3-1/2
6 14 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 15.0 3-3/4
7 8 HAYDAY K Teetan · P F Yiu 11 12.0 3-3/4
8 6 SPEEDY SMARTIE B-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 50.0 4-1/2
9 5 RUBY SAILING B1/TT1 Z Purton · K L Man 2 5.1 6
10 7 COUNTRY DANCER A Badel · J Size 6 12.0 6
11 12 PRESTIGE MOOCHI TT- A Hamelin · C H Yip 1 125.0 6-1/4
12 11 LUCKY FUN B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 8.5 6-1/2
13 10 LAPRAS CP1/SR1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 81.0 8
14 2 SPARKLING DOLPHIN L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 5 16.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUMMIT CHEERS2. MULTISUPER+1L3. SUPER COMMANDER+1.25L4. SUPER FAST DRAGON+2L5. LUCKY QUALITY+3.5L6. STRIVE FOR GLORY+3.75L7. HAYDAY+3.75L8. SPEEDY SMARTIE+4.5L9. RUBY SAILING+6L10. COUNTRY DANCER+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RUBY SAILING (37.5%) finished 9th — the winner SUMMIT CHEERS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 RUBY SAILING 37.5% 2.67 9
2 8 HAYDAY 10.4% 9.60 7
3 7 COUNTRY DANCER 8.0% 12.54 10
4 4 SUMMIT CHEERS 7.2% 13.96 1
5 3 MULTISUPER 6.5% 15.40 2
6 9 LUCKY QUALITY 5.8% 17.30 5
7 1 SUPER COMMANDER 5.2% 19.07 3
8 2 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 4.4% 22.50 14
9 11 LUCKY FUN 4.3% 23.45 12
10 13 SUPER FAST DRAGON 4.0% 25.11 4
11 14 STRIVE FOR GLORY 3.4% 29.20 6
12 10 LAPRAS 1.5% 65.62 13
13 6 SPEEDY SMARTIE 1.2% 85.80 8
14 12 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 0.7% 150.62 11
RUBY SAILINGHAYDAYCOUNTRY DANCERSUMMIT CHEERS — wonMULTISUPERLUCKY QUALITYSUPER COMMANDERSPARKLING DOLPHINLUCKY FUNSUPER FAST DRAGONSTRIVE FOR GLORYLAPRASSPEEDY SMARTIEPRESTIGE MOOCHI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 75.5

PLACE

1 59.5

3 16.5

4 25

QUINELLA

3,4 188

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 171

1,4 223.5

3,4 72

FORECAST

4,3 473

TIERCE

4,3,1 4,856

TRIO

1,3,4 1,237

FIRST 4

1,3,4,13 3,885

QUARTET

4,3,1,13 77,589

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/3 92.5

1/4 452.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,7/1,3,4 53,317