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Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GLUCK RACER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W K Mo, won by 1-1/4, with FORTUNE MASTER second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite PROSECCO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GLUCK RACER Closed strongly H2 1.22.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W K Mo 9 7.2 1-1/4
2 12 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 3 22.0 1-1/4
3 2 PROSECCO Closed strongly SR/V/TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 3.0 1-1/4
4 14 COMPULSORY Closed strongly B-/CP1/XB1/TT- K De Melo · C W Chang 6 28.0 2
5 3 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 11 3.1 2-3/4
6 11 APEX TOP Led early B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 21.0 4
7 1 MASTER OF LUCK B/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 2 12.0 4-1/4
8 9 YOO YOO KNIGHT Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 5 29.0 5-1/2
9 13 NOBLE BOYZ B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 14 44.0 6-1/4
10 10 FIRE BALL M F Poon · C H Yip 12 8.9 8
11 7 MULTIWIN B/H Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 54.0 9
12 6 GOOD BOY B-/CP1/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 8 49.0 15-3/4
13 4 CURLING SPEED H1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 80.0 19-3/4
5 CHARMING STEED K H Chan · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLUCK RACER2. FORTUNE MASTER+1.25L3. PROSECCO+1.25L4. COMPULSORY+2L5. CASA LEGEND+2.75L6. APEX TOP+4L7. MASTER OF LUCK+4.25L8. YOO YOO KNIGHT+5.5L9. NOBLE BOYZ+6.25L10. FIRE BALL+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PROSECCO (29.4%) finished 3rd — the winner GLUCK RACER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PROSECCO 29.4% 3.41 3
2 3 CASA LEGEND 17.3% 5.78 5
3 1 MASTER OF LUCK 11.9% 8.38 7
4 13 NOBLE BOYZ 7.9% 12.66 9
5 8 GLUCK RACER 7.2% 13.94 1
6 11 APEX TOP 6.5% 15.47 6
7 12 FORTUNE MASTER 4.2% 23.74 2
8 14 COMPULSORY 4.0% 24.98 4
9 10 FIRE BALL 3.7% 27.20 10
10 9 YOO YOO KNIGHT 3.3% 30.19 8
11 6 GOOD BOY 2.3% 43.45 12
12 7 MULTIWIN 1.6% 60.89 11
13 4 CURLING SPEED 0.7% 137.32 13
PROSECCOCASA LEGENDMASTER OF LUCKNOBLE BOYZGLUCK RACER — wonAPEX TOPFORTUNE MASTERCOMPULSORYFIRE BALLYOO YOO KNIGHTGOOD BOYMULTIWINCURLING SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 72.5

PLACE

2 13

8 26.5

12 54

QUINELLA

8,12 996.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 46

2,12 95.5

8,12 233

FORECAST

8,12 1,577

TIERCE

8,12,2 6,769

TRIO

2,8,12 695

FIRST 4

2,8,12,14 3,006

QUARTET

8,12,2,14 74,314