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Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 08:30

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 5 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIGHT SUCCESS, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by SH, with LUCKY SWEYNESSE second and DUKE WAI third. The 1.4 favourite LUCKY SWEYNESSE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SIGHT SUCCESS E 1.08.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 1 24.0 SH
2 1 LUCKY SWEYNESSE Z Purton · K L Man 5 1.4 SH
3 4 DUKE WAI PC H Bentley · P C Ng 2 27.0 1
4 6 ADIOS TT A Badel · F C Lor 4 27.0 2
5 3 VICTOR THE WINNER TT K Teetan · C S Shum 6 2.6 2-1/4
5 STOLTZ L Hewitson · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT SUCCESS2. LUCKY SWEYNESSE+0.1L3. DUKE WAI+1L4. ADIOS+2L5. VICTOR THE WINNER+2.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (49.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SIGHT SUCCESS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 49.4% 2.02 2
2 3 VICTOR THE WINNER 35.2% 2.84 5
3 6 ADIOS 6.8% 14.78 4
4 4 DUKE WAI 5.7% 17.66 3
5 2 SIGHT SUCCESS 3.0% 33.74 1
LUCKY SWEYNESSEVICTOR THE WINNERADIOSDUKE WAISIGHT SUCCESS — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 240

PLACE

1 11

2 38

QUINELLA

1,2 97.5

FORECAST

2,1 484

TIERCE

2,1,4 2,407

TRIO

1,2,4 157

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6TH DOUBLE

5/1,5 61.5

5/2 4,077