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Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. RISING FROM ASHES, ridden by K De Melo and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with NIMBLE NIMBUS second and FIVE G PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite SWORD POINT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.46.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT 1.46.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · K W Lui 2 23.0 N
2 10 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 7 24.0 N
3 3 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 13 10.0 1/2
4 14 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 8 50.0 1/2
5 9 CHAMPION DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 12.0 3/4
6 1 SWORD POINT CP Z Purton · F C Lor 1 2.5 3/4
7 8 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 3 9.0 1-1/2
8 7 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 5.8 1-3/4
9 13 HAMERON L Ferraris · K W Lui 5 8.6 2
10 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY V/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 4 29.0 3-1/4
11 4 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 14 46.0 4
12 6 MEANINGFUL STAR Led early B M F Poon · K W Lui 6 17.0 4-1/2
13 11 LOOKING GREAT CP2/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 103.0 6-1/4
14 2 BOURBONAIRE H A Hamelin · J Size 12 65.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RISING FROM ASHES2. NIMBLE NIMBUS+0.05L3. FIVE G PATCH+0.5L4. LA CITY BLANCHE+0.5L5. CHAMPION DRAGON+0.75L6. SWORD POINT+0.75L7. THE BEST PEACH+1.5L8. HELENE FEELING+1.75L9. HAMERON+2L10. COLUMBUS COUNTY+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SWORD POINT (30.1%) finished 6th — the winner RISING FROM ASHES was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SWORD POINT 30.1% 3.32 6
2 13 HAMERON 14.7% 6.78 9
3 7 HELENE FEELING 11.0% 9.10 8
4 3 FIVE G PATCH 7.0% 14.20 3
5 8 THE BEST PEACH 6.6% 15.25 7
6 12 RISING FROM ASHES 5.3% 18.78 1
7 10 NIMBLE NIMBUS 4.9% 20.57 2
8 9 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.7% 21.39 5
9 6 MEANINGFUL STAR 4.0% 25.24 12
10 14 LA CITY BLANCHE 2.9% 34.18 4
11 11 LOOKING GREAT 2.4% 41.30 13
12 4 BUTTERFIELD 2.4% 42.25 11
13 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY 2.4% 42.48 10
14 2 BOURBONAIRE 1.7% 59.97 14
SWORD POINTHAMERONHELENE FEELINGFIVE G PATCHTHE BEST PEACHRISING FROM ASHES — wonNIMBLE NIMBUSCHAMPION DRAGONMEANINGFUL STARLA CITY BLANCHELOOKING GREATBUTTERFIELDCOLUMBUS COUNTYBOURBONAIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 230

PLACE

3 30.5

10 64

12 51

QUINELLA

10,12 2,935

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 282

3,12 290.5

10,12 679

FORECAST

12,10 5,375

TIERCE

12,10,3 51,859

TRIO

3,10,12 6,717

FIRST 4

3,10,12,14 54,401

QUARTET

12,10,3,14

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

9/10 360.5

9/12 2,366.5