Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 07:10
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. INVINCIBLE SAGE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER COMMANDER second and FLYING HIGH third. The 2.5 favourite BEAUTY WAVES finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INVINCIBLE SAGE 0.56.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 1 | 4.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 3 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | BEAUTY WAVES XB1 Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 5 | 2.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | METRO WARRIOR B A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 13 | 6.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 32.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | DIVINE SHINING BO/H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 11 | 165.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SPARKLING KNIGHT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 2 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | KIMBERLEY B1/TT1 L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 8 | 194.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 10 | 39.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MERCHANT PRINCE H-/B/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 6 | 235.0 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | KA YING SPIRIT B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 7 | 20.0 | 19-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INVINCIBLE SAGE | 38.7% | 2.59 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | BEAUTY WAVES | 11.6% | 8.59 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 10.2% | 9.79 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | KA YING SPIRIT | 10.0% | 9.96 | 13 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPER COMMANDER | 6.8% | 14.71 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | METRO WARRIOR | 6.3% | 15.94 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR | 5.6% | 17.77 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 3.9% | 25.79 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | FLYING HIGH | 3.5% | 28.68 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER AXIOM | 1.4% | 73.50 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | DIVINE SHINING | 0.7% | 143.02 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 0.7% | 147.59 | 12 |
| 13 | 6 | KIMBERLEY | 0.7% | 153.81 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 40.5
PLACE
3 41
4 15.5
13 34
QUINELLA
4,13 210.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 96
3,13 240
4,13 77
FORECAST
4,13 442
TIERCE
4,13,3 4,589
TRIO
3,4,13 997
FIRST 4
2,3,4,13 2,373
QUARTET
4,13,3,2 42,855
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
2/1/4 3,535
2/1/13 2,684
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 565.5
1/13 361.5