Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 06:40
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with MASTER HERO second and AESTHETICISM third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite STRONGEST BOY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHANCHENG GLORY Wire to wire B/XB 1.35.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K W Lui | H Bentley | K W Lui | 2 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | MASTER HERO CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 6.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 7 | 5.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly H1/SR1/XB1 B Avdulla · D J Whyte | B Avdulla | D J Whyte | 3 | 62.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 4.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | CELTIC TIMES B/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 8 | 7.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | CAPTAIN HURRICANE TT- M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 1 | 66.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | STURDY RUBY TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SIMPLY MAVERICK Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 10 | 64.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 14 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 12 | 25.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB/TT- H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 5 | 70.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | PERFETTO V L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 11 | 19.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | PO ON WAY CP-/H-/B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 15.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | STRONGEST BOY | 13.9% | 7.19 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | CELTIC TIMES | 13.6% | 7.35 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | STURDY RUBY | 11.3% | 8.83 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 9.8% | 10.19 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | MASTER HERO | 9.7% | 10.32 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | PERFETTO | 7.9% | 12.61 | 13 |
| 7 | 4 | NOBLE WIN | 6.6% | 15.09 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | AESTHETICISM | 6.6% | 15.20 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 6.1% | 16.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | PO ON WAY | 5.5% | 18.25 | 14 |
| 11 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER | 4.2% | 23.74 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 2.5% | 40.22 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | CAPTAIN HURRICANE | 1.4% | 71.74 | 7 |
| 14 | 11 | SIMPLY MAVERICK | 0.9% | 116.07 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 73
PLACE
1 28.5
5 24
9 18.5
QUINELLA
1,5 309
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 104
1,9 79
5,9 68
FORECAST
1,5 660
TIERCE
1,5,9 2,837
TRIO
1,5,9 338
FIRST 4
1,5,6,9 5,453
QUARTET
1,5,9,6 106,521
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,12>4,5/1,5,9 6,898
3RD DOUBLE
2/1 485.5
2/5 103