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Sha Tin · 2023-10-22 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-22 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASSIVE ACTION, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with TAMRA BLITZ second and CHIU CHOW SPIRIT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.1 favourite GOLDEN SAMURAI finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MASSIVE ACTION Wire to wire SR/V 1.21.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · F C Lor 9 5.6 1-1/4
2 5 TAMRA BLITZ Closed strongly XB-/H/SR/CP1 H Bowman · D J Whyte 3 11.0 1-1/4
3 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 9.2 2
4 11 GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 12 2.1 2-1/4
5 7 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 11 56.0 2-1/2
6 3 HYPER DRAGON BALL Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 1 15.0 2-3/4
7 14 DARCI JOY B/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 7 48.0 3
8 6 MARADO B A Atzeni · W Y So 2 13.0 4-1/2
9 12 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 12.0 5
10 10 FALLON Closed strongly H/TT K De Melo · A S Cruz 10 118.0 6
11 4 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 14 46.0 6-1/4
12 1 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE CP1/TT1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 26.0 6-3/4
13 8 FRANTANCK K C Leung · P C Ng 13 122.0 8-1/2
14 13 COMET SPLENDIDO TT K H Chan · C S Shum 8 36.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE ACTION2. TAMRA BLITZ+1.25L3. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+2L4. GOLDEN SAMURAI+2.25L5. RATTAN KINGDOM+2.5L6. HYPER DRAGON BALL+2.75L7. DARCI JOY+3L8. MARADO+4.5L9. LET'S DO IT+5L10. FALLON+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN SAMURAI (31.6%) finished 4th — the winner MASSIVE ACTION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 GOLDEN SAMURAI 31.6% 3.16 4
2 9 MASSIVE ACTION 9.0% 11.10 1
3 13 COMET SPLENDIDO 8.2% 12.15 14
4 12 LET'S DO IT 8.2% 12.25 9
5 5 TAMRA BLITZ 7.0% 14.38 2
6 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 6.5% 15.33 3
7 1 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 6.2% 16.19 12
8 14 DARCI JOY 6.1% 16.44 7
9 6 MARADO 5.1% 19.55 8
10 3 HYPER DRAGON BALL 4.5% 22.44 6
11 4 STORM LEGEND 4.2% 23.61 11
12 7 RATTAN KINGDOM 1.8% 56.85 5
13 10 FALLON 0.8% 120.05 10
14 8 FRANTANCK 0.8% 121.40 13
GOLDEN SAMURAIMASSIVE ACTION — wonCOMET SPLENDIDOLET'S DO ITTAMRA BLITZCHIU CHOW SPIRITABSOLUTE SUNSHINEDARCI JOYMARADOHYPER DRAGON BALLSTORM LEGENDRATTAN KINGDOMFALLONFRANTANCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 56.5

PLACE

2 23.5

5 31

9 17.5

QUINELLA

5,9 302.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 148

2,9 85

5,9 99.5

FORECAST

9,5 561

TIERCE

9,5,2 4,287

TRIO

2,5,9 920

FIRST 4

2,5,9,11 374

QUARTET

9,5,2,11 14,324

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4>1,5/2,5,9 19,874

7TH DOUBLE

2/5 548

2/9 2,074.5