Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 04:50
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NORDIC COMBINED, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 4, with BRILLIANT PIONEER second and AUGUST MOON third. The 4.2 favourite BRILLIANT PIONEER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT 1.10.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 8 | 8.4 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | BRILLIANT PIONEER K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 9 | 4.2 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | AUGUST MOON V/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 1 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | BELL OF VICTORY B K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | STARRY NIGHT B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 11 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | PRECISION GOAL P/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 2 | 9.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | HAPPY TANGO B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 6 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | TUNG HAYE HAYE B-/XB-/H1/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 7 | 48.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | SIX BEST FRIENDS CP/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 4 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | DEVIL AND GOLD TT- M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 27.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | BRILLIANT EIGHT B2 H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 3 | 18.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | THETA HEDGE B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 5.7 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 18.4% | 5.45 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | THETA HEDGE | 16.9% | 5.91 | 12 |
| 3 | 3 | STARRY NIGHT | 16.3% | 6.14 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY TANGO | 9.5% | 10.47 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | BELL OF VICTORY | 7.7% | 12.94 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | PRECISION GOAL | 6.3% | 15.96 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 5.6% | 17.76 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED | 5.6% | 17.85 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 | AUGUST MOON | 4.6% | 21.51 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | BRILLIANT EIGHT | 4.2% | 24.00 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | DEVIL AND GOLD | 2.7% | 37.13 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | TUNG HAYE HAYE | 2.2% | 46.25 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 84.5
PLACE
1 36
7 17
8 24
QUINELLA
7,8 161
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 88.5
1,8 164
7,8 65
FORECAST
8,7 409
TIERCE
8,7,1 3,633
TRIO
1,7,8 602
FIRST 4
1,7,8,11 1,122
QUARTET
8,7,1,11 30,396