Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 08:20

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course C 9 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SEASONS WIT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 3, with REWARD SMILE second and CARROLL STREET third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.91

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	SEASONS WIT B/TT 0.56.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards	Z Purton	J Richards	4	119 lb	2.7	3
2	9	REWARD SMILE TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	115 lb	5.4	3
3	7	CARROLL STREET B-/SR2/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte	Y L Chung	D J Whyte	3	113 lb	19.0	3-3/4
4	2	MAJESTIC STAR TT A Atzeni · C S Shum	A Atzeni	C S Shum	6	129 lb	13.0	4-3/4
5	4	WHIZZ KID B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	128 lb	3.8	4-3/4
6	1	KURPANY B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	9	130 lb	18.0	4-3/4
7	6	NERVOUS WITNESS L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	5	126 lb	6.7	7
8	5	WE ARE HERO V/TT K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	8	127 lb	51.0	7
9	3	PING HAI GALAXY B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	2	128 lb	19.0	12

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick SEASONS WIT (46.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	SEASONS WIT	46.8%	2.14	1	2.7
2	4	WHIZZ KID	12.6%	7.93	5	3.8
3	2	MAJESTIC STAR	10.7%	9.38	4	13.0
4	6	NERVOUS WITNESS	7.8%	12.87	7	6.7
5	1	KURPANY	6.7%	14.91	6	18.0
6	9	REWARD SMILE	6.6%	15.05	2	5.4
7	7	CARROLL STREET	3.9%	25.46	3	19.0
8	5	WE ARE HERO	3.2%	30.83	8	51.0
9	3	PING HAI GALAXY	1.6%	61.12	9	19.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 27.5

PLACE

7 35

8 13

9 19

QUINELLA

8,9 72

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 77.5

7,9 136

8,9 31.5

FORECAST

8,9 130

TIERCE

8,9,7 1,131

TRIO

7,8,9 359

FIRST 4

2,7,8,9 754

QUARTET

8,9,7,2 8,214

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/8 104

1/9 48

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