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Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 15:46

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOMODACHI KOKOROE H/TT 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 2.5 3-3/4
2 0 PARTY WARRIOR H- L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 22.0 3-3/4
3 0 LUCKY PLANET SR-/B1 K De Melo · D J Whyte 2 4.8 4
4 0 FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 5 9.2 5
5 0 MULTIDARLING TT H Bentley · T P Yung 8 26.0 5-3/4
6 0 JUNEAU FLASH P B Avdulla · J Size 9 10.0 6-1/2
7 0 LEAN MASTER TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 3 58.0 7-1/4
8 0 SEE U AGAIN L Ferraris · C S Shum 11 23.0 10-1/2
9 0 COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 10 50.0 11-1/2
10 0 GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 7.5 12
11 0 DIAMOND FLARE Y L Chung · M Newnham 6 10.0 12-1/2
12 0 FLASH POINT B1/TT1 A Hamelin · J Richards 4 85.0 24-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOMODACHI KOKOROE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3-3/4, with PARTY WARRIOR second and LUCKY PLANET third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOMODACHI KOKOROE—2. PARTY WARRIOR+3.75L3. LUCKY PLANET+4L4. FLAMING EAGLE+5L5. MULTIDARLING+5.75L6. JUNEAU FLASH+6.5L7. LEAN MASTER+7.25L8. SEE U AGAIN+10.5L9. COMPASSION SUPER+11.5L10. GOLDEN LINK+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOMODACHI KOKOROE (38.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 38.3% 2.61 1
2 0 FLAMING EAGLE 12.0% 8.33 4
3 0 LUCKY PLANET 9.1% 11.02 3
4 0 GOLDEN LINK 7.7% 12.96 10
5 0 SEE U AGAIN 6.3% 15.92 8
6 0 DIAMOND FLARE 5.5% 18.07 11
7 0 JUNEAU FLASH 5.0% 19.85 6
8 0 MULTIDARLING 4.8% 20.72 5
9 0 PARTY WARRIOR 3.8% 26.56 2
10 0 COMPASSION SUPER 3.4% 29.24 9
11 0 FLASH POINT 2.7% 37.38 12
12 0 LEAN MASTER 1.4% 74.00 7
TOMODACHI KOKOROE — wonFLAMING EAGLELUCKY PLANETGOLDEN LINKSEE U AGAINDIAMOND FLAREJUNEAU FLASHMULTIDARLINGPARTY WARRIORCOMPASSION SUPERFLASH POINTLEAN MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25

PLACE

1 14.5

3 46

9 17

QUINELLA

1,3 308.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 108.5

1,9 33

3,9 140

FORECAST

1,3 475

TIERCE

1,3,9 2,310

TRIO

1,3,9 477

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 720

QUARTET

1,3,9,11 13,375

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,12/1,3,9 100,945

5TH DOUBLE

8/1 158.5

8/3 196

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,11/2,8,12/Any Combination 26,673