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Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN ARTIE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with BRAVE STAR second and KILINDINI third. The 4.8 favourite STREET CONQUEROR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB 1.10.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 6.3 SH
2 5 BRAVE STAR XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 5.8 SH
3 12 KILINDINI H/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 2 4.9 1
4 2 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 5 25.0 1-1/4
5 3 EXCELLENT PEERS H-/XB Y L Chung · F C Lor 3 7.5 1-1/2
6 8 SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT K De Melo · C W Chang 12 22.0 2-1/4
7 7 KYRUS DRAGON XB/H1 B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 50.0 2-1/4
8 10 STREET CONQUEROR TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 4.8 2-1/2
9 1 ATOMIC FORCE H/XB H Bentley · C Fownes 8 15.0 2-1/2
10 4 SIXTH GENERATION CP/H/TT Z Purton · J Richards 11 8.6 3
11 9 JUMBO FORTUNE PC/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 7 24.0 3-1/4
12 11 DESERT STAR SR/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 10 103.0 3-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN ARTIE2. BRAVE STAR+0.1L3. KILINDINI+1L4. NOT USUAL STAR+1.25L5. EXCELLENT PEERS+1.5L6. SMOKEY BEAR+2.25L7. KYRUS DRAGON+2.25L8. STREET CONQUEROR+2.5L9. ATOMIC FORCE+2.5L10. SIXTH GENERATION+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN ARTIE (24.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GOLDEN ARTIE 24.1% 4.15 1
2 3 EXCELLENT PEERS 13.1% 7.66 5
3 4 SIXTH GENERATION 10.3% 9.68 10
4 12 KILINDINI 9.8% 10.20 3
5 10 STREET CONQUEROR 9.0% 11.17 8
6 1 ATOMIC FORCE 7.5% 13.39 9
7 8 SMOKEY BEAR 7.5% 13.41 6
8 5 BRAVE STAR 6.8% 14.60 2
9 9 JUMBO FORTUNE 6.3% 15.88 11
10 2 NOT USUAL STAR 2.7% 37.43 4
11 7 KYRUS DRAGON 2.2% 45.68 7
12 11 DESERT STAR 0.8% 119.12 12
GOLDEN ARTIE — wonEXCELLENT PEERSSIXTH GENERATIONKILINDINISTREET CONQUERORATOMIC FORCESMOKEY BEARBRAVE STARJUMBO FORTUNENOT USUAL STARKYRUS DRAGONDESERT STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 63.5

PLACE

5 21.5

6 23.5

12 18

QUINELLA

5,6 185

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 69.5

5,12 59

6,12 58.5

FORECAST

6,5 414

TIERCE

6,5,12 1,578

TRIO

5,6,12 290

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 1,502

QUARTET

6,5,12,2 26,658

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

9/5 147

9/6 1,118