Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 15:16
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DURHAM STAR Closed strongly SR/XB 1.40.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | DRAGON STAR Led early V/XB K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 11 | 6.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | RED HARE KING TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 6 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | PACKING SUCCEEDER Closed strongly TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 3 | 3.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | CONCERTO Closed strongly XB/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 10 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | NINJA DERBY Closed strongly H/XB K De Melo · D A Hayes | K De Melo | D A Hayes | 1 | 99.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 7 | 13.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LITTLE FAIRY B/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 12 | 9.8 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GOLDEN BULL XB/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 4 | 6.2 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 9 | 47.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | CHATEAU B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 5 | 24.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK B/H/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 61.0 | 16-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DURHAM STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with DRAGON STAR second and RED HARE KING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite PACKING SUCCEEDER finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DURHAM STAR | 33.6% | 2.98 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | GOLDEN BULL | 14.7% | 6.81 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | DRAGON STAR | 11.4% | 8.80 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | CONCERTO | 10.7% | 9.34 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 8.0% | 12.53 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | PACKING SUCCEEDER | 5.8% | 17.21 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | RED HARE KING | 4.7% | 21.47 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | LITTLE FAIRY | 4.6% | 21.73 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.4% | 22.56 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | CHATEAU | 1.1% | 94.50 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK | 0.6% | 155.60 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | NINJA DERBY | 0.5% | 200.64 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 53
PLACE
2 42.5
8 18.5
12 22.5
QUINELLA
8,12 164
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 118
2,12 146.5
8,12 59.5
FORECAST
8,12 365
TIERCE
8,12,2 3,674
TRIO
2,8,12 808
FIRST 4
2,3,8,12 595
QUARTET
8,12,2,3 13,867
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
12/11/8 2,918
12/11/12 692
4TH DOUBLE
11/8 350.5
11/12 72.5