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Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 2 4.3 1/2
2 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 4 8.5 1/2
3 0 CORDYCEPS ONE B-/H- L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 10.0 1/2
4 0 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT L Ferraris · T P Yung 9 46.0 2-1/4
5 0 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 5 4.0 2-1/4
6 0 SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 13.0 2-1/4
7 0 BRAVE AND BOLD Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 10 14.0 5-3/4
8 0 VIVA A LA Led early P/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 4.8 7
9 0 PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly H-/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 1 12.0 10
10 0 SHENZHOU TWELVE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 96.0 12-1/4
11 0 GENEROUS FRIEND TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 106.0 14-1/4
12 0 EAGLE RUN CP/SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 22.0 18

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HANG'S CHOICE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with UNITED ENDEAVORS second and CORDYCEPS ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANG'S CHOICE—2. UNITED ENDEAVORS+0.5L3. CORDYCEPS ONE+0.5L4. MILLENNIUM FALCON+2.25L5. MEDIC ELITE+2.25L6. SMART BEAUTY+2.25L7. BRAVE AND BOLD+5.75L8. VIVA A LA+7L9. PEAK TO PEAK+10L10. SHENZHOU TWELVE+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VIVA A LA (12.5%) finished 8th — the winner HANG'S CHOICE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VIVA A LA 12.5% 8.03 8
2 0 HANG'S CHOICE 12.4% 8.04 1
3 0 MEDIC ELITE 12.3% 8.10 5
4 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS 11.7% 8.58 2
5 0 PEAK TO PEAK 11.0% 9.10 9
6 0 BRAVE AND BOLD 10.3% 9.69 7
7 0 SMART BEAUTY 8.9% 11.26 6
8 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 7.1% 14.07 3
9 0 EAGLE RUN 5.8% 17.23 12
10 0 MILLENNIUM FALCON 3.7% 27.00 4
11 0 GENEROUS FRIEND 2.9% 34.89 11
12 0 SHENZHOU TWELVE 1.4% 70.08 10
VIVA A LAHANG'S CHOICE — wonMEDIC ELITEUNITED ENDEAVORSPEAK TO PEAKBRAVE AND BOLDSMART BEAUTYCORDYCEPS ONEEAGLE RUNMILLENNIUM FALCONGENEROUS FRIENDSHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 43.5

PLACE

1 31

3 27

12 16.5

QUINELLA

3,12 189

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 128.5

1,12 82

3,12 70

FORECAST

12,3 374

TIERCE

12,3,1 3,363

TRIO

1,3,12 649

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 6,330

QUARTET

12,3,1,4 80,314

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/3 33

4/12 154.5