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Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 06:00

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HANG'S CHOICE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with UNITED ENDEAVORS second and CORDYCEPS ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 2 4.3 1/2
2 3 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 4 8.5 1/2
3 1 CORDYCEPS ONE B-/H- L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 10.0 1/2
4 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT L Ferraris · T P Yung 9 46.0 2-1/4
5 5 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 5 4.0 2-1/4
6 11 SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 13.0 2-1/4
7 2 BRAVE AND BOLD Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 10 14.0 5-3/4
8 6 VIVA A LA Led early P/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 4.8 7
9 8 PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly H-/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 1 12.0 10
10 10 SHENZHOU TWELVE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 96.0 12-1/4
11 9 GENEROUS FRIEND TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 106.0 14-1/4
12 7 EAGLE RUN CP/SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 22.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANG'S CHOICE2. UNITED ENDEAVORS+0.5L3. CORDYCEPS ONE+0.5L4. MILLENNIUM FALCON+2.25L5. MEDIC ELITE+2.25L6. SMART BEAUTY+2.25L7. BRAVE AND BOLD+5.75L8. VIVA A LA+7L9. PEAK TO PEAK+10L10. SHENZHOU TWELVE+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VIVA A LA (12.5%) finished 8th — the winner HANG'S CHOICE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VIVA A LA 12.5% 8.03 8
2 12 HANG'S CHOICE 12.4% 8.04 1
3 5 MEDIC ELITE 12.3% 8.10 5
4 3 UNITED ENDEAVORS 11.7% 8.58 2
5 8 PEAK TO PEAK 11.0% 9.10 9
6 2 BRAVE AND BOLD 10.3% 9.69 7
7 11 SMART BEAUTY 8.9% 11.26 6
8 1 CORDYCEPS ONE 7.1% 14.07 3
9 7 EAGLE RUN 5.8% 17.23 12
10 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON 3.7% 27.00 4
11 9 GENEROUS FRIEND 2.9% 34.89 11
12 10 SHENZHOU TWELVE 1.4% 70.08 10
VIVA A LAHANG'S CHOICE — wonMEDIC ELITEUNITED ENDEAVORSPEAK TO PEAKBRAVE AND BOLDSMART BEAUTYCORDYCEPS ONEEAGLE RUNMILLENNIUM FALCONGENEROUS FRIENDSHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 43.5

PLACE

1 31

3 27

12 16.5

QUINELLA

3,12 189

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 128.5

1,12 82

3,12 70

FORECAST

12,3 374

TIERCE

12,3,1 3,363

TRIO

1,3,12 649

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 6,330

QUARTET

12,3,1,4 80,314

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/3 33

4/12 154.5