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Happy Valley · 2023-10-29 · 10:00

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SPLENDID LIVING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with BRILLIANT WAY second and LEAN HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.41.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SPLENDID LIVING Closed strongly CP/TT 1.41.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 2 3.9 1-1/4
2 6 BRILLIANT WAY Led early SR/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 4 11.0 1-1/4
3 7 LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 5.9 1-1/4
4 8 BIG RED Closed strongly K De Melo · C W Chang 1 5.0 1-3/4
5 5 E LEGEND K C Leung · K L Man 12 37.0 3-1/2
6 2 BRAVE DREAMS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 19.0 4-3/4
7 3 DEVILDOM Closed strongly L Ferraris · T P Yung 7 40.0 4-3/4
8 12 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V A Atzeni · K H Ting 10 17.0 5
9 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 11 53.0 5-1/4
10 11 JUNE PLANET TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 6 4.5 6
11 1 ZONE D TT B Avdulla · J Size 3 17.0 7
12 10 HK DRAGON V/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 8 24.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPLENDID LIVING2. BRILLIANT WAY+1.25L3. LEAN HERO+1.25L4. BIG RED+1.75L5. E LEGEND+3.5L6. BRAVE DREAMS+4.75L7. DEVILDOM+4.75L8. PEGASUS GENERAL+5L9. NICHOLSON RETURNS+5.25L10. JUNE PLANET+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SPLENDID LIVING (19.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SPLENDID LIVING 19.3% 5.19 1
2 11 JUNE PLANET 15.8% 6.35 10
3 7 LEAN HERO 13.2% 7.56 3
4 8 BIG RED 10.9% 9.20 4
5 12 PEGASUS GENERAL 7.3% 13.63 8
6 2 BRAVE DREAMS 7.2% 13.87 6
7 5 E LEGEND 5.9% 16.95 5
8 6 BRILLIANT WAY 4.7% 21.22 2
9 3 DEVILDOM 4.5% 22.22 7
10 10 HK DRAGON 4.3% 23.49 12
11 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS 3.9% 25.78 9
12 1 ZONE D 3.1% 32.60 11
SPLENDID LIVING — wonJUNE PLANETLEAN HEROBIG REDPEGASUS GENERALBRAVE DREAMSE LEGENDBRILLIANT WAYDEVILDOMHK DRAGONNICHOLSON RETURNSZONE D

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 39

PLACE

4 15.5

6 37.5

7 22

QUINELLA

4,6 212

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 83

4,7 48

6,7 117

FORECAST

4,6 385

TIERCE

4,6,7 1,688

TRIO

4,6,7 405

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 416

QUARTET

4,6,7,8 6,268

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

9/6/4 3,417

9/6/6 2,089

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,12/4,6,7 17,138

9TH DOUBLE

6/4 215

6/6 131

SIX UP

8/1/8/9/6/4 333,479

8,12/1,3/8,9/2,9/5,6/4,6 26,144

1 [Z Purton]

1 [P F Yiu]

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