Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. THE GOOD DEAL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with VALHALLA second and MULTIMORE third. The 2.5 favourite VALHALLA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.80

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	THE GOOD DEAL B-/SR2/TT 0.57.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte	L Ferraris	D J Whyte	4	135 lb	8.7	1
2	8	VALHALLA XB/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes	B Avdulla	C Fownes	1	127 lb	2.5	1
3	2	MULTIMORE TT Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	9	135 lb	5.9	2-1/4
4	7	HAPPY HORSE H/TT Y L Chung · K L Man	Y L Chung	K L Man	5	122 lb	4.1	2-1/4
5	6	DASHING TRIUMPH B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	2	129 lb	6.3	2-1/4
6	4	FINGERS CROSSED B/TT L Currie · J Size	L Currie	J Size	3	133 lb	17.0	4
7	1	AMAZING TRAVIS H-/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	6	135 lb	60.0	4-1/4
8	9	BRILLIANT EIGHT B H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	8	113 lb	63.0	5-1/4
9	5	CALL ME TEDDY B2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang	M L Yeung	C W Chang	7	131 lb	26.0	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick VALHALLA (23.3%) finished 2nd — the winner THE GOOD DEAL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	VALHALLA	23.3%	4.30	2	2.5
2	3	THE GOOD DEAL	19.4%	5.15	1	8.7
3	2	MULTIMORE	16.7%	5.99	3	5.9
4	6	DASHING TRIUMPH	13.6%	7.35	5	6.3
5	7	HAPPY HORSE	10.8%	9.30	4	4.1
6	4	FINGERS CROSSED	6.0%	16.58	6	17.0
7	1	AMAZING TRAVIS	4.3%	23.26	7	60.0
8	5	CALL ME TEDDY	3.4%	29.51	9	26.0
9	9	BRILLIANT EIGHT	2.5%	39.49	8	63.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 87

PLACE

2 18.5

3 21

8 12.5

QUINELLA

3,8 83

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 55.5

2,8 28

3,8 32

FORECAST

3,8 221

TIERCE

3,8,2 838

TRIO

2,3,8 130

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 118

QUARTET

3,8,2,7 2,896

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99