Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 13:45
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WOOD ON FIRE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with TELECOM SPIRIT second and YOUNG LIFE FOREVER third. The 4.2 favourite SOLID SHALAA finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT 1.11.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 6 | 6.0 | N |
| 2 | 10 | TELECOM SPIRIT B A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 5 | 13.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 3 | 6.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN RISE L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 9 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER ELITE H/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | HERO ICON TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | JOY COMING CP/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 10 | 8.3 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 2 | 9.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | DIAMOND DIAMOND B- L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 11 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 1 | SOLID SHALAA B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 4.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | TACTICAL COMMAND K C Leung · M Newnham | K C Leung | M Newnham | 7 | 60.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 12 | 74.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SOLID SHALAA | 19.4% | 5.15 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | JOY COMING | 19.1% | 5.24 | 7 |
| 3 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER | 15.2% | 6.57 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | WOOD ON FIRE | 9.9% | 10.09 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | HERO ICON | 9.1% | 10.95 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | TELECOM SPIRIT | 7.1% | 14.05 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | SUPER ELITE | 6.8% | 14.71 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | DIAMOND DIAMOND | 4.0% | 25.00 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 3.3% | 30.07 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | GOLDEN RISE | 2.9% | 34.09 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 1.6% | 62.31 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 1.5% | 68.22 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 60
PLACE
3 19.5
4 22
10 42.5
QUINELLA
3,10 418
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 59.5
3,10 131.5
4,10 138
FORECAST
3,10 734
TIERCE
3,10,4 3,118
TRIO
3,4,10 641
FIRST 4
3,4,6,10 3,092
QUARTET
3,10,4,6 62,044
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,12/3,4,10 59,603
6TH DOUBLE
3/3 132.5
3/10 57.5
TRIPLE TRIO
8,10,12/3,8,12/3,4,10 8,910,534
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
8,10,12/3,8,12/Any Combination 58,355