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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ZOOM BOOM, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with SIGHT HERO second and SPEEDSTAR third. The 3.2 favourite SPEEDSTAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ZOOM BOOM SR-/XB/B2 1.10.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · D J Whyte 2 14.0 NOSE
2 3 SIGHT HERO BO/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 9 13.0 NOSE
3 12 SPEEDSTAR B K De Melo · D J Hall 3 3.2 1/2
4 1 ACT OF FAITH B Avdulla · J Size 5 5.2 3/4
5 5 HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 10.0 1-3/4
6 9 SUPER EAGLE TT L Ferraris · W Y So 7 14.0 1-3/4
7 10 WIND SPEEDER L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 1 7.2 2
8 6 MAYHEM P-/H M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 8.8 3-1/4
9 8 HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum 10 11.0 3-3/4
10 7 HAPPY FEELING SR1/TT1 K C Leung · J Richards 4 42.0 6
11 4 SUPER BONUS B A Hamelin · P C Ng 12 57.0 6-1/4
12 11 HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 52.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ZOOM BOOM2. SIGHT HERO+0.05L3. SPEEDSTAR+0.5L4. ACT OF FAITH+0.75L5. HERO STAR+1.75L6. SUPER EAGLE+1.75L7. WIND SPEEDER+2L8. MAYHEM+3.25L9. HARMONY N HOME+3.75L10. HAPPY FEELING+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SPEEDSTAR (18.7%) finished 3rd — the winner ZOOM BOOM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 SPEEDSTAR 18.7% 5.34 3
2 2 ZOOM BOOM 14.7% 6.78 1
3 8 HARMONY N HOME 12.3% 8.15 9
4 1 ACT OF FAITH 9.6% 10.37 4
5 6 MAYHEM 8.9% 11.28 8
6 3 SIGHT HERO 8.1% 12.28 2
7 9 SUPER EAGLE 7.0% 14.37 6
8 10 WIND SPEEDER 6.2% 16.25 7
9 7 HAPPY FEELING 5.1% 19.55 10
10 4 SUPER BONUS 3.5% 28.70 11
11 5 HERO STAR 3.4% 29.79 5
12 11 HERCULES 2.5% 39.67 12
SPEEDSTARZOOM BOOM — wonHARMONY N HOMEACT OF FAITHMAYHEMSIGHT HEROSUPER EAGLEWIND SPEEDERHAPPY FEELINGSUPER BONUSHERO STARHERCULES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 140.5

PLACE

2 46.5

3 36

12 15

QUINELLA

2,3 639

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 189.5

2,12 80.5

3,12 67

FORECAST

2,3 1,310

TIERCE

2,3,12 5,259

TRIO

2,3,12 677

FIRST 4

1,2,3,12 640

QUARTET

2,3,12,1 18,370

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/2 362.5

3/3 55.5