Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 11:50

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 7 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MAJESTIC KNIGHT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3-1/2, with HUMBLE STAR second and EXPLOSIVE WITNESS third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.75

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	MAJESTIC KNIGHT B 0.56.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · D J Whyte	Y L Chung	D J Whyte	4	127 lb	2.6	3-1/2
2	5	HUMBLE STAR SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	5	125 lb	3.1	3-1/2
3	2	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB L Hewitson · C Fownes	L Hewitson	C Fownes	6	134 lb	9.1	3-1/2
4	4	HEROIC MASTER CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	7	132 lb	6.1	4-1/4
5	1	LUCKY EIGHT B H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	3	135 lb	8.6	5-3/4
6	6	KA YING POWER H1/TT1 A Badel · A S Cruz	A Badel	A S Cruz	2	124 lb	17.0	8
7	7	SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	1	118 lb	15.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick HUMBLE STAR (38.3%) finished 2nd — the winner MAJESTIC KNIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	HUMBLE STAR	38.3%	2.61	2	3.1
2	3	MAJESTIC KNIGHT	19.6%	5.11	1	2.6
3	4	HEROIC MASTER	14.8%	6.74	4	6.1
4	1	LUCKY EIGHT	11.0%	9.12	5	8.6
5	2	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS	7.4%	13.50	3	9.1
6	6	KA YING POWER	6.6%	15.11	6	17.0
7	7	SUPER AXIOM	2.4%	42.45	7	15.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 26

PLACE

2 19.5

3 13

5 11.5

QUINELLA

3,5 41

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 32.5

2,5 33.5

3,5 18.5

FORECAST

3,5 81

TIERCE

3,5,2 229

TRIO

2,3,5 70

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 41

QUARTET

3,5,2,4 499

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,8/2,3,5 6,213

2ND DOUBLE

8/3 260.5

8/5 61

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