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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 19:41

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 7 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B 0.56.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · D J Whyte 4 2.6 3-1/2
2 0 HUMBLE STAR SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 5 3.1 3-1/2
3 0 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB L Hewitson · C Fownes 6 9.1 3-1/2
4 0 HEROIC MASTER CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 7 6.1 4-1/4
5 0 LUCKY EIGHT B H Bentley · P F Yiu 3 8.6 5-3/4
6 0 KA YING POWER H1/TT1 A Badel · A S Cruz 2 17.0 8
7 0 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 15.0 9-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MAJESTIC KNIGHT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3-1/2, with HUMBLE STAR second and EXPLOSIVE WITNESS third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAJESTIC KNIGHT—2. HUMBLE STAR+3.5L3. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+3.5L4. HEROIC MASTER+4.25L5. LUCKY EIGHT+5.75L6. KA YING POWER+8L7. SUPER AXIOM+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HUMBLE STAR (38.3%) finished 2nd — the winner MAJESTIC KNIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HUMBLE STAR 38.3% 2.61 2
2 0 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 19.6% 5.11 1
3 0 HEROIC MASTER 14.8% 6.74 4
4 0 LUCKY EIGHT 11.0% 9.12 5
5 0 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 7.4% 13.50 3
6 0 KA YING POWER 6.6% 15.11 6
7 0 SUPER AXIOM 2.4% 42.45 7
HUMBLE STARMAJESTIC KNIGHT — wonHEROIC MASTERLUCKY EIGHTEXPLOSIVE WITNESSKA YING POWERSUPER AXIOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 26

PLACE

2 19.5

3 13

5 11.5

QUINELLA

3,5 41

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 32.5

2,5 33.5

3,5 18.5

FORECAST

3,5 81

TIERCE

3,5,2 229

TRIO

2,3,5 70

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 41

QUARTET

3,5,2,4 499

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,8/2,3,5 6,213

2ND DOUBLE

8/3 260.5

8/5 61