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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 15:05

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with COLOURFUL EMPEROR second and TORONADO PHANTOM third. The 4.0 favourite DENFIELD finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB 1.10.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 4 17.0 N
2 8 COLOURFUL EMPEROR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 8.8 N
3 9 TORONADO PHANTOM TT A Badel · J Size 2 8.9 1-1/2
4 12 RED ELEGANCE XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 10 7.3 2
5 3 SUGAR SUGAR B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 7 5.2 2
6 5 GAMEPLAYER ELITE SR1 K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 16.0 2-1/4
7 1 GALLANT WAKING XB- Z Purton · K W Lui 3 4.7 2-1/4
8 10 DENFIELD TT K Teetan · C S Shum 8 4.0 2-1/2
9 4 HAPPY DAILY TT- A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 21.0 2-3/4
10 11 FUN N GLORY E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 48.0 6-3/4
11 2 AMAZING RUN B/TT1 L Currie · D A Hayes 1 73.0 9-1/4
0 JOLLY RULER H Bentley · P F Yiu
7 SOLAR GOGO B Avdulla · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ARCHANGEL2. COLOURFUL EMPEROR+0.05L3. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.5L4. RED ELEGANCE+2L5. SUGAR SUGAR+2L6. GAMEPLAYER ELITE+2.25L7. GALLANT WAKING+2.25L8. DENFIELD+2.5L9. HAPPY DAILY+2.75L10. FUN N GLORY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DENFIELD (24.4%) finished 8th — the winner LUCKY ARCHANGEL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 DENFIELD 24.4% 4.10 8
2 1 GALLANT WAKING 16.3% 6.13 7
3 6 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 11.7% 8.55 1
4 12 RED ELEGANCE 8.0% 12.47 4
5 3 SUGAR SUGAR 7.5% 13.28 5
6 4 HAPPY DAILY 7.5% 13.40 9
7 11 FUN N GLORY 6.6% 15.24 10
8 8 COLOURFUL EMPEROR 6.5% 15.40 2
9 9 TORONADO PHANTOM 5.9% 16.99 3
10 5 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 4.5% 22.12 6
11 2 AMAZING RUN 1.1% 87.55 11
DENFIELDGALLANT WAKINGLUCKY ARCHANGEL — wonRED ELEGANCESUGAR SUGARHAPPY DAILYFUN N GLORYCOLOURFUL EMPERORTORONADO PHANTOMGAMEPLAYER ELITEAMAZING RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 177.5

PLACE

6 49

8 30

9 27.5

QUINELLA

6,8 915

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 256.5

6,9 203

8,9 155

FORECAST

6,8 2,085

TIERCE

6,8,9 16,167

TRIO

6,8,9 2,300

FIRST 4

6,8,9,12 3,532

QUARTET

6,8,9,12 104,467

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/11/6 5,603

3/11/8 1,357

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/6,8,9 2,860,048

8TH DOUBLE

11/6 997.5

11/8 153

SIX UP

2,3/8,12/3,12/3,10/3,11/6,8 50,346

2/12/3/3/11/6 6,372,870

5 [D J Whyte]

2 [Y L Chung]