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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-3/4, with ESCAPE ROUTE second and TOURBILLON PRINCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite OUTGATE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT 1.40.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 8.2 2-3/4
2 3 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H B Avdulla · J Size 7 39.0 2-3/4
3 5 TOURBILLON PRINCE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · T P Yung 12 14.0 2-3/4
4 6 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 8 4.5 2-3/4
5 4 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H/SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 1 6.0 3-1/2
6 2 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 3.8 4-1/2
7 10 FRANTANCK Closed strongly M L Yeung · P C Ng 3 24.0 5-1/4
8 8 RED MAJESTY B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 5 26.0 8-1/4
9 9 FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang 2 17.0 8-3/4
10 7 SILVER SONIC XB H Bentley · K W Lui 4 6.1 10-1/4
11 1 MAJESTIC COLOUR V K C Leung · F C Lor 10 36.0 20-1/4
12 12 CHRYSOS Led early B/TT A Badel · C Fownes 11 52.0 68-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL CHIBI2. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.75L3. TOURBILLON PRINCE+2.75L4. ALL BEAUTY+2.75L5. IVY LEAGUE+3.5L6. OUTGATE+4.5L7. FRANTANCK+5.25L8. RED MAJESTY+8.25L9. FAMILY FOLKS+8.75L10. SILVER SONIC+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick OUTGATE (21.0%) finished 6th — the winner CHILL CHIBI was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 OUTGATE 21.0% 4.76 6
2 7 SILVER SONIC 16.1% 6.20 10
3 4 IVY LEAGUE 15.7% 6.35 5
4 6 ALL BEAUTY 10.6% 9.46 4
5 11 CHILL CHIBI 10.0% 9.97 1
6 9 FAMILY FOLKS 6.7% 14.96 9
7 5 TOURBILLON PRINCE 6.2% 16.04 3
8 1 MAJESTIC COLOUR 4.8% 21.02 11
9 12 CHRYSOS 3.2% 31.18 12
10 8 RED MAJESTY 3.1% 32.01 8
11 3 ESCAPE ROUTE 1.8% 55.56 2
12 10 FRANTANCK 0.7% 137.24 7
OUTGATESILVER SONICIVY LEAGUEALL BEAUTYCHILL CHIBI — wonFAMILY FOLKSTOURBILLON PRINCEMAJESTIC COLOURCHRYSOSRED MAJESTYESCAPE ROUTEFRANTANCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 82.5

PLACE

3 92

5 42.5

11 27

QUINELLA

3,11 1,548

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 678.5

3,11 450

5,11 186.5

FORECAST

11,3 2,082

TIERCE

11,3,5 22,581

TRIO

3,5,11 5,808

FIRST 4

3,5,6,11 5,161

QUARTET

11,3,5,6 137,947

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

3/3 481.5

3/11 545.5