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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RIGHTEOUS ARION, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with CHOICERUS second and TATTENHAM third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT 1.10.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 2.6 1/2
2 12 CHOICERUS B M L Yeung · D J Whyte 2 24.0 1/2
3 8 TATTENHAM A Hamelin · P C Ng 4 10.0 1
4 4 SCOTCH TYCOON B Avdulla · M Newnham 9 23.0 1-1/2
5 5 HIGH PERCENTAGE TT Z Purton · T P Yung 12 6.5 1-3/4
6 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 4.0 2-1/2
7 2 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR/TT H Bentley · J Richards 11 23.0 4-1/4
8 6 EVER VICTORIOUS K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 17.0 4-1/4
9 11 PRESTIGE MOOCHI M F Poon · C H Yip 5 101.0 5
10 9 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 15.0 6
11 7 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 14.0 6-1/2
12 10 CALL ME MIGHTY H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 10 123.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS ARION2. CHOICERUS+0.5L3. TATTENHAM+1L4. SCOTCH TYCOON+1.5L5. HIGH PERCENTAGE+1.75L6. KOKUSHI MUSOU+2.5L7. OUR LUCKY GLORY+4.25L8. EVER VICTORIOUS+4.25L9. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+5L10. MELBOURNE HALL+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HIGH PERCENTAGE (20.5%) finished 5th — the winner RIGHTEOUS ARION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HIGH PERCENTAGE 20.5% 4.88 5
2 3 RIGHTEOUS ARION 20.1% 4.97 1
3 7 HAPPY SOUL 11.9% 8.39 11
4 6 EVER VICTORIOUS 10.8% 9.25 8
5 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU 9.7% 10.27 6
6 9 MELBOURNE HALL 7.2% 13.98 10
7 2 OUR LUCKY GLORY 6.6% 15.17 7
8 8 TATTENHAM 4.7% 21.35 3
9 4 SCOTCH TYCOON 3.9% 25.71 4
10 12 CHOICERUS 3.0% 33.63 2
11 11 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 0.9% 106.53 9
12 10 CALL ME MIGHTY 0.7% 150.76 12
HIGH PERCENTAGERIGHTEOUS ARION — wonHAPPY SOULEVER VICTORIOUSKOKUSHI MUSOUMELBOURNE HALLOUR LUCKY GLORYTATTENHAMSCOTCH TYCOONCHOICERUSPRESTIGE MOOCHICALL ME MIGHTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 26.5

PLACE

3 14.5

8 36

12 46.5

QUINELLA

3,12 258.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 70.5

3,12 91

8,12 339.5

FORECAST

3,12 347

TIERCE

3,12,8 4,073

TRIO

3,8,12 952

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 4,434

QUARTET

3,12,8,4 55,329

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

12/3 493

12/12 689