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Happy Valley · 2023-11-01 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE TRIPLE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with SUNNY BABY second and TURTLE AGAIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite HAPPY HERO finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.50.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly 1.50.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 5 8.1 SH
2 1 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly B- Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 4.6 SH
3 7 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 9 14.0 3/4
4 5 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · J Richards 11 37.0 1-1/4
5 9 JOYFUL CHAMPION TT B Avdulla · C W Chang 10 9.1 1-1/2
6 6 HAPPY HERO Closed strongly B L Hewitson · M Newnham 3 3.5 1-3/4
7 11 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 6.8 2-3/4
8 12 GOLDEN FAIRY XB-/B2 K De Melo · W Y So 2 9.4 3
9 4 LOYAL AMBITION B2/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 6 16.0 3-1/4
10 2 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly P- L Currie · J Size 12 82.0 5-3/4
11 3 TRAVEL GUIDE B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 33.0 6-1/4
12 10 SUPER BUDDY Led early B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 33.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE TRIPLE2. SUNNY BABY+0.1L3. TURTLE AGAIN+0.75L4. COLOURFUL BARON+1.25L5. JOYFUL CHAMPION+1.5L6. HAPPY HERO+1.75L7. MIGHTY STAR+2.75L8. GOLDEN FAIRY+3L9. LOYAL AMBITION+3.25L10. DIAMOND WINNER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (22.8%) finished 2nd — the winner FORTUNE TRIPLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUNNY BABY 22.8% 4.39 2
2 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE 15.4% 6.51 1
3 11 MIGHTY STAR 13.7% 7.31 7
4 6 HAPPY HERO 12.5% 7.98 6
5 5 COLOURFUL BARON 9.1% 11.03 4
6 9 JOYFUL CHAMPION 5.3% 18.84 5
7 7 TURTLE AGAIN 5.2% 19.14 3
8 12 GOLDEN FAIRY 5.1% 19.65 8
9 3 TRAVEL GUIDE 4.2% 23.81 11
10 4 LOYAL AMBITION 3.1% 32.68 9
11 10 SUPER BUDDY 2.7% 36.97 12
12 2 DIAMOND WINNER 1.0% 101.35 10
SUNNY BABYFORTUNE TRIPLE — wonMIGHTY STARHAPPY HEROCOLOURFUL BARONJOYFUL CHAMPIONTURTLE AGAINGOLDEN FAIRYTRAVEL GUIDELOYAL AMBITIONSUPER BUDDYDIAMOND WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 81

PLACE

1 18

7 38

8 24

QUINELLA

1,8 222.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 119.5

1,8 73

7,8 163.5

FORECAST

8,1 477

TIERCE

8,1,7 4,815

TRIO

1,7,8 731

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 5,573

QUARTET

8,1,7,5 108,528

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 80

3/8 692.5