Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPICY SO SMART, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with CHARMING STEED second and RATTAN WORLD third. The 3.5 favourite DASHING TRIUMPH finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPICY SO SMART B/XB 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 6 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | CHARMING STEED B-/H/P1/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 12 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | RATTAN WORLD B/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 8 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | NOBLE BOYZ B-/V1/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 8.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 4 | 5.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | BRAVE AND BOLD B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | DEVIL AND GOLD M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 1 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | DASHING TRIUMPH B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 5 | 3.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | TUNG HAYE HAYE H/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 11 | 46.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | BELL OF VICTORY B/TT2 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 15.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | FORTUNE TURBO B H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 2 | 52.0 | 12 |
| — | 6 | SOARING TOWER B/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 10 | 12.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DASHING TRIUMPH | 34.0% | 2.94 | 8 |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 16.0% | 6.26 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | CHARMING STEED | 8.2% | 12.26 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | NOBLE BOYZ | 7.5% | 13.41 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | BELL OF VICTORY | 7.4% | 13.45 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | BRAVE AND BOLD | 6.5% | 15.29 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | RATTAN WORLD | 6.4% | 15.67 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | DEVIL AND GOLD | 4.2% | 23.93 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | TUNG HAYE HAYE | 4.0% | 24.71 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | SPICY SO SMART | 3.7% | 26.83 | 1 |
| 11 | 10 | FORTUNE TURBO | 2.2% | 46.41 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 145
PLACE
1 41
2 31
3 62
QUINELLA
2,3 1,027.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 184.5
1,3 372
2,3 288.5
FORECAST
3,2 1,956
TIERCE
3,2,1 18,480
TRIO
1,2,3 3,690
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 6,227
QUARTET
3,2,1,9 191,463