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Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 19:41

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · M Newnham 9 12.0 1/2
2 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 29.0 1/2
3 0 HAPPY JAI JAI TT Z Purton · T P Yung 8 4.7 1-3/4
4 0 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · C H Yip 5 50.0 2-3/4
5 0 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly B-/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 10.0 3
6 0 MEDIC ELITE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 1 2.9 3-1/4
7 0 DOUBLE SHOW P/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte 7 11.0 3-1/4
8 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 10 28.0 5
9 0 CHIRON Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 39.0 5-1/4
10 0 BEAUTY NOVA H-/CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 3 7.6 5-1/4
11 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 12 32.0 10-1/4
12 0 TURBO POWER Led early B- L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 8.2 17-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with REGENCY HAPPY STAR second and HAPPY JAI JAI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE—2. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+0.5L3. HAPPY JAI JAI+1.75L4. BROTHER PEARL+2.75L5. NICE BIRDIE+3L6. MEDIC ELITE+3.25L7. DOUBLE SHOW+3.25L8. TSUEN WAN GLORY+5L9. CHIRON+5.25L10. BEAUTY NOVA+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (20.7%) finished 6th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MEDIC ELITE 20.7% 4.83 6
2 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 17.3% 5.77 3
3 0 TURBO POWER 9.1% 11.02 12
4 0 DOUBLE SHOW 9.0% 11.09 7
5 0 BEAUTY NOVA 8.3% 12.10 10
6 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 7.3% 13.66 11
7 0 NICE BIRDIE 6.7% 14.94 5
8 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 6.5% 15.44 1
9 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY 5.3% 18.76 8
10 0 CHIRON 4.5% 22.24 9
11 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 3.0% 33.03 2
12 0 BROTHER PEARL 2.2% 44.87 4
MEDIC ELITEHAPPY JAI JAITURBO POWERDOUBLE SHOWBEAUTY NOVAFAITHFUL TRINITYNICE BIRDIERIGHT HONOURABLE — wonTSUEN WAN GLORYCHIRONREGENCY HAPPY STARBROTHER PEARL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 124

PLACE

1 33.5

3 18.5

6 77

QUINELLA

1,6 1,969

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 91

1,6 568

3,6 297.5

FORECAST

1,6 3,447

TIERCE

1,6,3 15,184

TRIO

1,3,6 1,871

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 12,624

QUARTET

1,6,3,4 307,087

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/1,3,6 73,024

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 810

5/6 423