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Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with REGENCY HAPPY STAR second and HAPPY JAI JAI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · M Newnham 9 12.0 1/2
2 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 29.0 1/2
3 3 HAPPY JAI JAI TT Z Purton · T P Yung 8 4.7 1-3/4
4 4 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · C H Yip 5 50.0 2-3/4
5 2 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly B-/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 10.0 3
6 8 MEDIC ELITE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 1 2.9 3-1/4
7 9 DOUBLE SHOW P/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte 7 11.0 3-1/4
8 11 TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 10 28.0 5
9 7 CHIRON Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 39.0 5-1/4
10 12 BEAUTY NOVA H-/CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 3 7.6 5-1/4
11 5 FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 12 32.0 10-1/4
12 10 TURBO POWER Led early B- L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 8.2 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE2. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+0.5L3. HAPPY JAI JAI+1.75L4. BROTHER PEARL+2.75L5. NICE BIRDIE+3L6. MEDIC ELITE+3.25L7. DOUBLE SHOW+3.25L8. TSUEN WAN GLORY+5L9. CHIRON+5.25L10. BEAUTY NOVA+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (20.7%) finished 6th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MEDIC ELITE 20.7% 4.83 6
2 3 HAPPY JAI JAI 17.3% 5.77 3
3 10 TURBO POWER 9.1% 11.02 12
4 9 DOUBLE SHOW 9.0% 11.09 7
5 12 BEAUTY NOVA 8.3% 12.10 10
6 5 FAITHFUL TRINITY 7.3% 13.66 11
7 2 NICE BIRDIE 6.7% 14.94 5
8 1 RIGHT HONOURABLE 6.5% 15.44 1
9 11 TSUEN WAN GLORY 5.3% 18.76 8
10 7 CHIRON 4.5% 22.24 9
11 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 3.0% 33.03 2
12 4 BROTHER PEARL 2.2% 44.87 4
MEDIC ELITEHAPPY JAI JAITURBO POWERDOUBLE SHOWBEAUTY NOVAFAITHFUL TRINITYNICE BIRDIERIGHT HONOURABLE — wonTSUEN WAN GLORYCHIRONREGENCY HAPPY STARBROTHER PEARL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 124

PLACE

1 33.5

3 18.5

6 77

QUINELLA

1,6 1,969

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 91

1,6 568

3,6 297.5

FORECAST

1,6 3,447

TIERCE

1,6,3 15,184

TRIO

1,3,6 1,871

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 12,624

QUARTET

1,6,3,4 307,087

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/1,3,6 73,024

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 810

5/6 423