Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE WARRIOR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with SUPER FAST DRAGON second and COLOURFUL PRINCE third. The 4.0 favourite SERGEANT PEPPER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP 0.57.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 12 | 7.0 | SH |
| 2 | 12 | SUPER FAST DRAGON CP/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 10 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.8 | HD |
| 4 | 4 | SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 8.9 | N |
| 5 | 2 | E BROTHER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 18.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | KING INVINCIBLE TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 6.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | SERGEANT PEPPER Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 9 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | PHILOS H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | FANCY STAR P1/TT L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 11 | 72.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | MR GOOD VIBES A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 6 | 125.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 8 | 45.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | HAYDAY TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 19.0% | 5.27 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | KING INVINCIBLE | 15.6% | 6.39 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 12.1% | 8.29 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 9.4% | 10.60 | 11 |
| 5 | 3 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 9.1% | 11.04 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | HAYDAY | 9.0% | 11.15 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | SAVVY DELIGHT | 8.5% | 11.82 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | PHILOS | 6.8% | 14.65 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | E BROTHER | 6.0% | 16.79 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | SUPER FAST DRAGON | 3.4% | 29.84 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | MR GOOD VIBES | 0.7% | 140.49 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | FANCY STAR | 0.5% | 183.94 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 70
PLACE
3 22
6 20
12 39
QUINELLA
3,12 518.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 87
3,12 147.5
6,12 111.5
FORECAST
3,12 772
TIERCE
3,12,6 5,930
TRIO
3,6,12 1,020
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 1,516
QUARTET
3,12,6,4 44,142
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/3 1,458
1/12 284