Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 13:25
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with SEE U AGAIN second and LYRICAL MOTION third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 2.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | SEE U AGAIN B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 7 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | LYRICAL MOTION TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | TELECOM SPEED L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 10 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | SEA SAPPHIRE A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 8 | 29.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | ISLAND GOLDEN TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 24.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | EASY SNIP B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | ROUND THE GLOBE B- A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 5.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | STORMTROUPER E/XB/B1 L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 9 | 27.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | TOGEPI B/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 11 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | AROMATICA TT1 K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 12 | 71.0 | 16 |
| 12 | 2 | DESERT STAR SR/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 15.0 | 18 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ROUND THE GLOBE | 25.6% | 3.91 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 14.4% | 6.92 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | LYRICAL MOTION | 13.9% | 7.18 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | TOGEPI | 10.6% | 9.42 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 9.6% | 10.41 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | EASY SNIP | 8.0% | 12.55 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | TELECOM SPEED | 4.6% | 21.97 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | SEE U AGAIN | 3.6% | 27.56 | 2 |
| 9 | 2 | DESERT STAR | 3.3% | 29.99 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | AROMATICA | 2.6% | 38.60 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | STORMTROUPER | 2.0% | 49.01 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | SEA SAPPHIRE | 1.7% | 59.04 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 24.5
PLACE
1 13
10 42
12 18
QUINELLA
1,10 219
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 83
1,12 24.5
10,12 135.5
FORECAST
1,10 300
TIERCE
1,10,12 2,175
TRIO
1,10,12 369
FIRST 4
1,3,10,12 1,470
QUARTET
1,10,12,3 23,531
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
1/1 894.5
1/10 830