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Happy Valley · 2023-11-08 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GLORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with GRATEFUL HEART second and SWEET BRIAR third. The 3.0 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT 1.09.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 6.1 SH
2 2 GRATEFUL HEART CP-/B1/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 1 14.0 SH
3 7 SWEET BRIAR B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 5.1 N
4 1 LIGHTNING BOLT TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 3.0 1
5 11 JUMBO FORTUNE PC/XB K Teetan · P C Ng 3 9.4 2
6 10 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 11 17.0 3
7 4 SEIZING THE MOMENT PC-/B2 B Avdulla · J Size 2 12.0 4-1/2
8 5 STORM LEGEND A Badel · C Fownes 7 39.0 5-1/4
9 8 YOUTH POWER K C Leung · D A Hayes 4 68.0 5-1/2
10 9 LUCKY GOR B/E/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 6.5 7-1/4
11 3 KIMBERLEY B/TT L Currie · J Richards 8 121.0 8-1/2
12 12 E UNIVERSE TT M L Yeung · K L Man 12 73.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY GLORY2. GRATEFUL HEART+0.1L3. SWEET BRIAR+0.05L4. LIGHTNING BOLT+1L5. JUMBO FORTUNE+2L6. READY TO WIN+3L7. SEIZING THE MOMENT+4.5L8. STORM LEGEND+5.25L9. YOUTH POWER+5.5L10. LUCKY GOR+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SWEET BRIAR (22.0%) finished 3rd — the winner BEAUTY GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SWEET BRIAR 22.0% 4.54 3
2 6 BEAUTY GLORY 20.6% 4.85 1
3 1 LIGHTNING BOLT 17.0% 5.88 4
4 9 LUCKY GOR 8.7% 11.44 10
5 11 JUMBO FORTUNE 8.2% 12.17 5
6 10 READY TO WIN 7.4% 13.50 6
7 2 GRATEFUL HEART 5.5% 18.22 2
8 5 STORM LEGEND 3.6% 27.80 8
9 8 YOUTH POWER 2.9% 34.76 9
10 4 SEIZING THE MOMENT 2.0% 50.44 7
11 12 E UNIVERSE 1.5% 66.58 12
12 3 KIMBERLEY 0.5% 183.30 11
SWEET BRIARBEAUTY GLORY — wonLIGHTNING BOLTLUCKY GORJUMBO FORTUNEREADY TO WINGRATEFUL HEARTSTORM LEGENDYOUTH POWERSEIZING THE MOMENTE UNIVERSEKIMBERLEY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 61.5

PLACE

2 33

6 22.5

7 17

QUINELLA

2,6 370.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 113.5

2,7 99

6,7 65

FORECAST

6,2 662

TIERCE

6,2,7 2,886

TRIO

2,6,7 388

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 173

QUARTET

6,2,7,1 6,557

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

8/2 135.5

8/6 501.5