Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 10:50
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VALHALLA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with NOIR RIDER second and H Z TOURBILLON third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VALHALLA XB/TT 1.10.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 1.9 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | NOIR RIDER XB/B2 Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 6 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | H Z TOURBILLON TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 8 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | VIVA A LA P/TT K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 7 | 7.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | HERCULES B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 3 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | AUGUST MOON V-/B2/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 4 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | AMAZING TRAVIS TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 2 | 46.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL CP/TT B Avdulla · W K Mo | B Avdulla | W K Mo | 9 | 29.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 5 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | ALLOY KING V A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 11 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 12 | 26.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | BRAVE AND BOLD A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 10 | 19.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VALHALLA | 33.6% | 2.98 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | H Z TOURBILLON | 13.9% | 7.21 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | VIVA A LA | 8.3% | 12.07 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND | 6.9% | 14.55 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | AUGUST MOON | 6.3% | 15.86 | 6 |
| 6 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 5.9% | 16.94 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | BRAVE AND BOLD | 5.8% | 17.10 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | HERCULES | 4.8% | 20.99 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | ALLOY KING | 3.8% | 26.50 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 3.7% | 27.31 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | AMAZING TRAVIS | 3.7% | 27.39 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 3.5% | 28.86 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 19.5
PLACE
3 26
10 12.5
12 31.5
QUINELLA
10,12 178
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 42
3,12 177.5
10,12 60.5
FORECAST
10,12 201
TIERCE
10,12,3 1,169
TRIO
3,10,12 307
FIRST 4
3,10,11,12 400
QUARTET
10,12,3,11 5,517