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Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 13:50

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TELECOM FIGHTERS, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and GALAXY WITNESS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite TAJ DRAGON finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.40.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS Wire to wire 1.40.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 4 18.0 1
2 3 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 2 13.0 1
3 9 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 4.3 1-1/2
4 4 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly CP1/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 7 3.6 1-1/2
5 8 TAJ DRAGON Z Purton · P C Ng 8 2.9 1-3/4
6 2 KEEFY TT K C Leung · F C Lor 6 58.0 3
7 10 HAMERON Closed strongly L Ferraris · K W Lui 10 7.3 3-1/4
8 6 ERIMO B-/P1 K Teetan · J Size 3 17.0 3-3/4
9 7 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 9 60.0 6-1/2
10 5 TRUE LEGEND B/TT K H Chan · W K Mo 5 111.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TELECOM FIGHTERS2. MEANINGFUL STAR+1L3. GALAXY WITNESS+1.5L4. HELENE FEELING+1.5L5. TAJ DRAGON+1.75L6. KEEFY+3L7. HAMERON+3.25L8. ERIMO+3.75L9. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+6.5L10. TRUE LEGEND+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TAJ DRAGON (27.6%) finished 5th — the winner TELECOM FIGHTERS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 TAJ DRAGON 27.6% 3.62 5
2 9 GALAXY WITNESS 19.4% 5.16 3
3 10 HAMERON 15.5% 6.43 7
4 4 HELENE FEELING 13.4% 7.47 4
5 3 MEANINGFUL STAR 7.7% 13.03 2
6 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS 6.9% 14.52 1
7 7 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 3.7% 27.08 9
8 6 ERIMO 3.5% 28.96 8
9 2 KEEFY 1.3% 74.96 6
10 5 TRUE LEGEND 1.0% 101.32 10
TAJ DRAGONGALAXY WITNESSHAMERONHELENE FEELINGMEANINGFUL STARTELECOM FIGHTERS — wonEVERYONE'S DELIGHTERIMOKEEFYTRUE LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 189

PLACE

1 40

3 30

9 15

QUINELLA

1,3 648

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 159

1,9 117.5

3,9 66.5

FORECAST

1,3 1,290

TIERCE

1,3,9 6,117

TRIO

1,3,9 681

FIRST 4

1,3,4,9 412

QUARTET

1,3,9,4 15,673

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,12/1,3,9 21,431

6TH DOUBLE

12/1 1,432

12/3 194

TRIPLE TRIO

2,4,10/1,4,12/1,3,9 7,201,536

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,10/1,4,12/Any Combination 6,830