Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 11:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON STAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with SNOWALOT second and PROSECCO third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DRAGON STAR Wire to wire V/XB 1.39.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 2.4 | N |
| 2 | 3 | SNOWALOT Closed strongly B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 12 | PROSECCO Closed strongly SR/V/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 12 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 5.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | SIMPLY MAVERICK A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 10 | 27.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly B-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/V1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 7 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | FLYING SILVER Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 8 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | PRINCE ALEX SR/XB/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 3 | 8.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SPANGLE FORTUNE CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 57.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | YEABOI P-/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 11 | 89.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR | 23.1% | 4.32 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | DRAGON STAR | 18.1% | 5.54 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SNOWALOT | 14.1% | 7.08 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | KASA PAPA | 9.0% | 11.10 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | PRINCE ALEX | 7.9% | 12.60 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | ALL ARE MINE | 7.4% | 13.59 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | PROSECCO | 6.6% | 15.26 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | FLYING SILVER | 4.0% | 24.88 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | READY PLAYER ONE | 3.9% | 25.59 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 2.9% | 34.51 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | SIMPLY MAVERICK | 1.7% | 59.68 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | YEABOI | 1.3% | 76.39 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 24.5
PLACE
3 36
11 12.5
12 41
QUINELLA
3,11 138.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 54
3,12 260.5
11,12 72
FORECAST
11,3 243
TIERCE
11,3,12 1,961
TRIO
3,11,12 669
FIRST 4
3,9,11,12 634
QUARTET
11,3,12,9 11,903
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/3,11,12 11,693
2ND DOUBLE
4/3 71
4/11 90