Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 14:55
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with KARMA second and ROMANTIC LAOS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT 1.39.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 2.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | KARMA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 6.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 1 | 5.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | THESIS Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 5 | 7.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly CP/H/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 6 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | VIVA HUNTER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 62.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 11 | 98.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | SPLENDID LIVING CP/TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 9 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 10 | 67.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | BRILLIANT WAY Led early SR/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 12 | 33.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 15.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 32.6% | 3.07 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | CHILL CHIBI | 13.9% | 7.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | KARMA | 10.6% | 9.40 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | STAR CONTACT | 8.4% | 11.95 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | THESIS | 6.7% | 14.96 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | SPLENDID LIVING | 6.0% | 16.74 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON | 5.8% | 17.17 | 12 |
| 8 | 12 | LUCKY GOLD | 4.9% | 20.54 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | SIXTH GENERATION | 3.2% | 30.88 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | VIVA HUNTER | 3.2% | 30.94 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | BRILLIANT WAY | 2.7% | 37.37 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 2.1% | 48.55 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 28
PLACE
4 18
6 13
9 19.5
QUINELLA
6,9 96.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 30
4,9 56.5
6,9 40
FORECAST
6,9 174
TIERCE
6,9,4 566
TRIO
4,6,9 124
FIRST 4
4,6,9,11 176
QUARTET
6,9,4,11 2,451
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/1/6 3,472
1/1/9 1,329
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/4,6,9 1,013
8TH DOUBLE
1/6 214.5
1/9 103.5
SIX UP
9,11/2,4/1,12/1,3/1,4/6,9 6,364
11/2/12/1/1/6 2,886,064
1 [Z Purton] —
2 [C Fownes] —