Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 11:15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HUMBLE STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with ATOMIC ENERGY second and EXPLOSIVE WITNESS third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HUMBLE STAR SR/TT 0.56.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 6 | 3.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | ATOMIC ENERGY TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 6.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT Y L Chung · D A Hayes | Y L Chung | D A Hayes | 7 | 6.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 8 | 4.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 3 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | RUN RUN COOL PC L Currie · F C Lor | L Currie | F C Lor | 2 | 34.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HUMBLE STAR | 25.8% | 3.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 20.2% | 4.95 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 15.4% | 6.48 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 13.5% | 7.40 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER COMMANDER | 10.8% | 9.28 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | ATOMIC ENERGY | 6.3% | 15.89 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | RUN RUN COOL | 4.5% | 22.15 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON | 3.5% | 28.80 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 33.5
PLACE
2 19
4 14
6 28
QUINELLA
4,6 153
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 28
2,6 72
4,6 52.5
FORECAST
4,6 264
TIERCE
4,6,2 816
TRIO
2,4,6 137
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 107
QUARTET
4,6,2,1 1,972
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
10/4 63
10/6 40.5