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Happy Valley · 2023-11-15 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY DAY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with YOUNG LIFE FOREVER second and DIAMOND DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HAPPY DAY B/TT 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · J Richards 2 2.9 SH
2 4 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER K H Chan · C Fownes 11 30.0 SH
3 10 DIAMOND DIAMOND L Hewitson · T P Yung 8 19.0 1-3/4
4 9 LUCKY PLANET B K Teetan · D J Whyte 12 10.0 2-1/4
5 8 CHAMPION INSTINCT B A Badel · D J Hall 5 8.4 3-1/4
6 5 HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man 3 13.0 3-3/4
7 7 SO TREASURE L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 35.0 5
8 1 HAPPY GOLF Z Purton · F C Lor 4 3.7 6-1/4
9 6 RED MAVERICK M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 1 80.0 6-1/4
10 3 MEGA BONUS CP K De Melo · P F Yiu 7 31.0 7-1/4
11 11 SUPER EAGLE E1/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 9 28.0 7-1/4
12 12 SPICY SO SMART B/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 8.3 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY DAY2. YOUNG LIFE FOREVER+0.1L3. DIAMOND DIAMOND+1.75L4. LUCKY PLANET+2.25L5. CHAMPION INSTINCT+3.25L6. HERO STAR+3.75L7. SO TREASURE+5L8. HAPPY GOLF+6.25L9. RED MAVERICK+6.25L10. MEGA BONUS+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HAPPY DAY (21.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HAPPY DAY 21.5% 4.65 1
2 1 HAPPY GOLF 12.1% 8.25 8
3 8 CHAMPION INSTINCT 11.8% 8.50 5
4 9 LUCKY PLANET 10.0% 9.97 4
5 7 SO TREASURE 9.1% 10.99 7
6 11 SUPER EAGLE 7.6% 13.16 11
7 4 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 6.3% 15.98 2
8 5 HERO STAR 5.5% 18.24 6
9 12 SPICY SO SMART 4.7% 21.38 12
10 3 MEGA BONUS 4.3% 23.22 10
11 10 DIAMOND DIAMOND 4.1% 24.31 3
12 6 RED MAVERICK 3.0% 33.05 9
HAPPY DAY — wonHAPPY GOLFCHAMPION INSTINCTLUCKY PLANETSO TREASURESUPER EAGLEYOUNG LIFE FOREVERHERO STARSPICY SO SMARTMEGA BONUSDIAMOND DIAMONDRED MAVERICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

2 14

4 61

10 47.5

QUINELLA

2,4 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 123

2,10 87

4,10 668

FORECAST

2,4 418

TIERCE

2,4,10 6,919

TRIO

2,4,10 1,953

FIRST 4

2,4,9,10 2,836

QUARTET

2,4,10,9 28,673

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

11/11/2 420

11/11/4 1,159

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,11/2,4,10 128,068

4TH DOUBLE

11/2 101.5

11/4 258