Sha Tin · 2023-12-03 · 06:35
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING RISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-3/4, with STRATHPEFFER second and TELECOM DRAGON third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | KA YING RISING 1.09.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 2.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | STRATHPEFFER B K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 4 | 5.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | TELECOM DRAGON TT J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 3 | 5.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | NISHIKADO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 2 | 59.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | MR MAESTRO XB1/TT1 A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 6 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | SPEEDY FORTUNE K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | JOYFUL LIFE K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | LADY BILLIE H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 5 | 182.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | FRUITY WARRIOR TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 18.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | ALWAYS AWESOME A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 72.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | CLASSIC MOON CP-/B1/XB1/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 9 | 31.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 56.0 | 19-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | KA YING RISING | 22.4% | 4.46 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | STRATHPEFFER | 14.9% | 6.70 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | TELECOM DRAGON | 13.6% | 7.34 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 9.6% | 10.41 | 12 |
| 5 | 5 | JOYFUL LIFE | 8.9% | 11.25 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | SPEEDY FORTUNE | 6.8% | 14.66 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 6.4% | 15.56 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | MR MAESTRO | 4.6% | 21.77 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | NISHIKADO | 4.5% | 22.34 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | ALWAYS AWESOME | 3.9% | 25.77 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | CLASSIC MOON | 3.5% | 28.24 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | LADY BILLIE | 0.8% | 125.54 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 21
PLACE
1 16.5
6 12.5
12 15.5
QUINELLA
6,12 56
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 28
1,12 33.5
6,12 25
FORECAST
6,12 91
TIERCE
6,12,1 180
TRIO
1,6,12 56
FIRST 4
1,6,8,12 411
QUARTET
6,12,1,8 3,193
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,9,10/1,6,12 74,478
3RD DOUBLE
10/6 181
10/12 57.5