Sha Tin · 2023-12-03 · 07:10
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JUDY'S GREAT, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with SMART FOLKS second and FLYING DRAGON third. The 2.3 favourite GREENWICH finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | JUDY'S GREAT TT 1.09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 11 | 23.0 | N |
| 2 | 12 | SMART FOLKS B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 14.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | FLYING DRAGON XB Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 5 | 7.1 | N |
| 4 | 1 | EURO ROCKS CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 9 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 38.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | PANDA LEGEND TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 2 | 116.0 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | FAST BUCK P A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 5.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 3 | 9.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | GREENWICH V1/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 1 | 2.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | DAN ATTACK H/P/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 7 | 28.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 8 | 66.0 | 15 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREENWICH | 44.6% | 2.24 | 10 |
| 2 | 4 | FLYING DRAGON | 11.1% | 9.02 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 10.5% | 9.49 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY | 5.3% | 18.71 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN | 5.3% | 19.02 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | FAST BUCK | 4.6% | 21.51 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | SMART FOLKS | 3.9% | 25.58 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 3.6% | 27.59 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | EURO ROCKS | 3.6% | 28.08 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | JUDY'S GREAT | 3.5% | 28.23 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | DAN ATTACK | 2.8% | 35.33 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | PANDA LEGEND | 1.1% | 91.33 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 234
PLACE
4 19.5
8 53
12 41.5
QUINELLA
8,12 1,317
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 167.5
4,12 145.5
8,12 410.5
FORECAST
8,12 2,527
TIERCE
8,12,4 17,857
TRIO
4,8,12 2,585
FIRST 4
1,4,8,12 4,612
QUARTET
8,12,4,1 119,328
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
10/6/8 4,019
10/6/12 1,396
4TH DOUBLE
6/8 456
6/12 121.5