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Sha Tin · 2023-12-03 · 09:15

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-03 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with GOLDEN BULL second and RIVER VIEWS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite MEEPMEEP finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 5.0 N
2 9 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 10 12.0 N
3 10 RIVER VIEWS E C W Wong · T P Yung 3 7.6 1/2
4 8 FREE FOAL Closed strongly V K Teetan · F C Lor 2 39.0 1
5 5 IMPERIAL MAGEE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT A Badel · K H Ting 4 37.0 1-3/4
6 11 YEABOI Closed strongly B2/TT K De Melo · C H Yip 8 151.0 2-1/4
7 6 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 5 2.6 2-3/4
8 1 KA YING CHEER Led early CP-/B1 Y L Chung · P C Ng 12 4.6 3-1/2
9 3 CHILLI BABA B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 9 31.0 4-1/4
10 4 DREAM PURSUER Closed strongly CP-/B1 J McDonald · K L Man 11 30.0 5-1/4
11 14 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 44.0 6-3/4
12 13 DRAGON DELIGHT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 34.0 7-1/4
13 7 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang 14 101.0 7-1/2
14 12 KING OF THE COURT B- L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 50.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOLY LAKE2. GOLDEN BULL+0.05L3. RIVER VIEWS+0.5L4. FREE FOAL+1L5. IMPERIAL MAGEE+1.75L6. YEABOI+2.25L7. MEEPMEEP+2.75L8. KA YING CHEER+3.5L9. CHILLI BABA+4.25L10. DREAM PURSUER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEEPMEEP (23.3%) finished 7th — the winner HOLY LAKE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MEEPMEEP 23.3% 4.29 7
2 2 HOLY LAKE 14.7% 6.79 1
3 1 KA YING CHEER 14.2% 7.04 8
4 10 RIVER VIEWS 9.3% 10.71 3
5 3 CHILLI BABA 6.1% 16.27 9
6 9 GOLDEN BULL 5.0% 20.03 2
7 8 FREE FOAL 4.8% 20.73 4
8 12 KING OF THE COURT 4.8% 20.77 14
9 13 DRAGON DELIGHT 4.7% 21.45 12
10 4 DREAM PURSUER 4.6% 21.59 10
11 5 IMPERIAL MAGEE 3.8% 26.51 5
12 14 PERFECT PEACH 2.5% 39.67 11
13 11 YEABOI 1.1% 90.95 6
14 7 FOREVER FOLKS 1.0% 103.00 13
MEEPMEEPHOLY LAKE — wonKA YING CHEERRIVER VIEWSCHILLI BABAGOLDEN BULLFREE FOALKING OF THE COURTDRAGON DELIGHTDREAM PURSUERIMPERIAL MAGEEPERFECT PEACHYEABOIFOREVER FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 50

PLACE

2 17.5

9 27

10 24

QUINELLA

2,9 345.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 121

2,10 57

9,10 174.5

FORECAST

2,9 658

TIERCE

2,9,10 4,450

TRIO

2,9,10 1,031

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 5,754

QUARTET

2,9,10,8 100,510

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/2 474.5

13/9 481