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Sha Tin · 2023-12-03 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 5.0 N
2 0 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 10 12.0 N
3 0 RIVER VIEWS E C W Wong · T P Yung 3 7.6 1/2
4 0 FREE FOAL Closed strongly V K Teetan · F C Lor 2 39.0 1
5 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT A Badel · K H Ting 4 37.0 1-3/4
6 0 YEABOI Closed strongly B2/TT K De Melo · C H Yip 8 151.0 2-1/4
7 0 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 5 2.6 2-3/4
8 0 KA YING CHEER Led early CP-/B1 Y L Chung · P C Ng 12 4.6 3-1/2
9 0 CHILLI BABA B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 9 31.0 4-1/4
10 0 DREAM PURSUER Closed strongly CP-/B1 J McDonald · K L Man 11 30.0 5-1/4
11 0 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 44.0 6-3/4
12 0 DRAGON DELIGHT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 34.0 7-1/4
13 0 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang 14 101.0 7-1/2
14 0 KING OF THE COURT B- L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 50.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-03 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with GOLDEN BULL second and RIVER VIEWS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite MEEPMEEP finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOLY LAKE—2. GOLDEN BULL+0.05L3. RIVER VIEWS+0.5L4. FREE FOAL+1L5. IMPERIAL MAGEE+1.75L6. YEABOI+2.25L7. MEEPMEEP+2.75L8. KA YING CHEER+3.5L9. CHILLI BABA+4.25L10. DREAM PURSUER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEEPMEEP (23.3%) finished 7th — the winner HOLY LAKE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MEEPMEEP 23.3% 4.29 7
2 0 HOLY LAKE 14.7% 6.79 1
3 0 KA YING CHEER 14.2% 7.04 8
4 0 RIVER VIEWS 9.3% 10.71 3
5 0 CHILLI BABA 6.1% 16.27 9
6 0 GOLDEN BULL 5.0% 20.03 2
7 0 FREE FOAL 4.8% 20.73 4
8 0 KING OF THE COURT 4.8% 20.77 14
9 0 DRAGON DELIGHT 4.7% 21.45 12
10 0 DREAM PURSUER 4.6% 21.59 10
11 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE 3.8% 26.51 5
12 0 PERFECT PEACH 2.5% 39.67 11
13 0 YEABOI 1.1% 90.95 6
14 0 FOREVER FOLKS 1.0% 103.00 13
MEEPMEEPHOLY LAKE — wonKA YING CHEERRIVER VIEWSCHILLI BABAGOLDEN BULLFREE FOALKING OF THE COURTDRAGON DELIGHTDREAM PURSUERIMPERIAL MAGEEPERFECT PEACHYEABOIFOREVER FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 50

PLACE

2 17.5

9 27

10 24

QUINELLA

2,9 345.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 121

2,10 57

9,10 174.5

FORECAST

2,9 658

TIERCE

2,9,10 4,450

TRIO

2,9,10 1,031

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 5,754

QUARTET

2,9,10,8 100,510

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/2 474.5

13/9 481