Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-12-03 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-03 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ALL ARE MINE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with BLISSFUL STAR second and NORDIC STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite MISSION BRAVO finished 14th.

Result

Official · 1.49.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT 1.49.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 6.6 N
2 9 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V-/B1/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 66.0 N
3 2 NORDIC STAR Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 4 7.0 2-1/2
4 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B-/XB L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 9.5 3-1/4
5 4 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly V-/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 12 54.0 4
6 14 M M NEBULA CP/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 5 7.8 4-3/4
7 6 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So 9 37.0 4-3/4
8 1 AMAZING TEENS H/P2/TT J McDonald · J Size 14 7.3 5
9 11 NINJA DERBY H-/XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 89.0 5
10 3 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H/XB K De Melo · P F Yiu 13 42.0 5-1/4
11 13 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 11 32.0 5-3/4
12 7 LUCKY BANNER H/TT L Currie · C Fownes 2 7.5 7-1/4
13 12 AFFIRM TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 18.0 8
14 5 MISSION BRAVO Led early B L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 4.2 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL ARE MINE2. BLISSFUL STAR+0.05L3. NORDIC STAR+2.5L4. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.25L5. CAN'T GO WONG+4L6. M M NEBULA+4.75L7. PAKISTAN FRIEND+4.75L8. AMAZING TEENS+5L9. NINJA DERBY+5L10. HARRY'S HERO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MISSION BRAVO (20.5%) finished 14th — the winner ALL ARE MINE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MISSION BRAVO 20.5% 4.88 14
2 13 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 11.8% 8.45 11
3 14 M M NEBULA 11.8% 8.47 6
4 7 LUCKY BANNER 9.1% 11.04 12
5 10 ALL ARE MINE 7.9% 12.73 1
6 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 6.9% 14.58 4
7 1 AMAZING TEENS 6.4% 15.67 8
8 6 PAKISTAN FRIEND 6.0% 16.59 7
9 2 NORDIC STAR 4.8% 20.90 3
10 12 AFFIRM 4.4% 22.49 13
11 9 BLISSFUL STAR 4.0% 25.30 2
12 4 CAN'T GO WONG 3.6% 27.65 5
13 11 NINJA DERBY 1.5% 67.10 9
14 3 HARRY'S HERO 1.4% 71.54 10
MISSION BRAVOYEE CHEONG WARRIORM M NEBULALUCKY BANNERALL ARE MINE — wonRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEAMAZING TEENSPAKISTAN FRIENDNORDIC STARAFFIRMBLISSFUL STARCAN'T GO WONGNINJA DERBYHARRY'S HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 66

PLACE

2 23.5

9 176.5

10 25

QUINELLA

9,10 3,209

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 886.5

2,10 93.5

9,10 833.5

FORECAST

10,9 4,096

TIERCE

10,9,2 40,246

TRIO

2,9,10 5,757

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 7,181

QUARTET

10,9,2,8 181,418

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/9 1,531.5

3/10 1,951